Yes, summer 2026 gas prices could surprise drivers—and probably not pleasantly. As of May 2026, the national average for regular gasoline sits at $4.55 per gallon, up 25 cents in just the past two weeks and $1.40 higher than May 2025. But the real shock could come over the next few months. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted prices could fall to $3.00 per gallon between June and September, while Moody’s Analytics expects settlement around $3.50 by year’s end. Meanwhile, other analysts warn that geopolitical disruptions could push prices toward $7 per gallon.
Drivers are facing a widening range of outcomes, and the difference between the most expensive and least expensive gas in America is already staggering: California residents are paying $6.16 per gallon while Oklahoma drivers find gas at $3.98. The central question isn’t whether prices will move this summer—they almost certainly will. The question is how much, and in which direction. The current spike reflects years of forecasted moderation colliding head-on with Middle Eastern instability. What started as optimistic expectations for 2026 fuel costs has shifted dramatically, leaving consumers and businesses unable to plan with confidence. Understanding what’s driving these price swings and what experts actually predict is essential for anyone making summer travel or purchasing decisions.
Table of Contents
- What Is the Current State of Gas Prices in May 2026?
- Why Are Gas Prices Rising When 2026 Was Supposed to Be Cheaper?
- Why Such Massive Price Differences Between States?
- What Do Official Forecasts Predict for Summer 2026 Gas Prices?
- The Worst-Case Scenario: What If Geopolitical Tensions Escalate?
- The Summer Switch and Seasonal Price Patterns
- What Comes Next—Monitoring the Summer Ahead
- Conclusion
What Is the Current State of Gas Prices in May 2026?
The national average for regular gasoline currently stands at $4.55 per gallon as of May 7, 2026, with the AAA National Average slightly lower at $4.530 per gallon as of May 9. These figures represent a sharp jump from recent weeks and a substantial year-over-year increase. Compared to May 2025, drivers are paying approximately $1.40 more per gallon today—a 44 percent increase that significantly impacts household budgets and transportation planning. The price variation across the country, however, tells a more complex story. California leads the nation at $6.16 per gallon, followed by Washington at $5.76 and Hawaii at $5.66. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Oklahoma averages $3.98 per gallon, Mississippi $4.00, and Louisiana $4.02.
A driver filling a 15-gallon tank in California spends approximately $92.40, while the same driver in Oklahoma spends roughly $59.70—a difference of nearly $33 per fill-up. Over a summer of regular driving, this regional disparity adds up to hundreds of dollars in additional costs for California residents, creating a de facto energy tax based purely on geography. These current prices represent a significant departure from forecasts made earlier in 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration had projected a 2026 average of $2.97 per gallon, which would have represented meaningful relief from 2025 levels. That optimistic scenario has been effectively shelved, replaced by revised forecasts that account for Middle Eastern instability and supply chain disruptions that have materialized since those predictions were made.
Why Are Gas Prices Rising When 2026 Was Supposed to Be Cheaper?
The 2026 fuel market entered the year with tailwinds: increased domestic production, relatively stable global demand, and expectations of abundant supply. Early forecasts suggested prices could fall significantly. Instead, geopolitical disruptions have overwhelmed those favorable fundamentals. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical chokepoints for oil transport, has experienced suspended traffic since early March 2026. This disruption affects approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined fuel flows—roughly 20 percent of global crude oil production and a substantial portion of global refined products. The consequences have been immediate. Gasoline futures climbed toward four-year highs, and refiners facing supply uncertainty began raising prices to protect margins.
The disruption in the Strait means that even if U.S. domestic production remains robust, the global crude oil market experiences scarcity signals that ultimately affect American pump prices. Oil flows through global markets—a disruption in one region reverberates to every filling station worldwide. When traders worry about supply constraints 6,000 miles away, they bid up futures prices, which translates into higher costs for American consumers within weeks. Additionally, the seasonal shift to summer-blend gasoline—required by environmental regulations in many states—adds another layer of cost. The summer blend is more expensive to produce than winter blend, typically adding 15 to 30 cents per gallon during the May-to-September period. This wasn’t unexpected, but it arrives on top of the geopolitical premium, compounding the pressure on pump prices during the season when Americans drive the most.
Why Such Massive Price Differences Between States?
The $2.18 gap between California’s $6.16 and Oklahoma’s $3.98 reflects far more than simple supply-and-demand differences across state lines. California’s isolation from the national pipeline network due to state environmental regulations and limited refining capacity creates a captive market where supply constraints drive higher prices. Additionally, California requires a special fuel blend with lower emissions, a mandate that restricts the number of refineries that can supply the state and eliminates the ability to import cheaper out-of-state gasoline in response to price spikes. Oklahoma, by contrast, sits in the heart of American oil country. Refineries cluster in the region, crude oil is produced locally, and the state’s gasoline blends match the national standard, allowing for straightforward competition and pipeline distribution.
Proximity to production and lack of special environmental mandates create naturally lower prices. Hawaii’s $5.66 average, meanwhile, reflects geography and shipping logistics—every drop of fuel must be imported by ship, adding transportation costs that landlocked states never face. These regional disparities are not temporary. They reflect structural differences in refining capacity, pipeline access, and regulatory frameworks that persist year after year. Drivers in high-price states cannot shop around for cheaper fuel in neighboring states when those states have fundamentally different supply dynamics. This limitation means Californians and Hawaiians will continue experiencing price premiums regardless of what happens to the global oil market, making their budgeting more vulnerable to any disruption.
What Do Official Forecasts Predict for Summer 2026 Gas Prices?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has offered the most optimistic near-term prediction, suggesting that gas prices could fall to around $3.00 per gallon sometime between June 20 and September 20, 2026. This prediction depends on a few critical assumptions: that the Strait of Hormuz disruption resolves, that global oil supply normalizes, and that geopolitical tensions ease. Bessent’s $3.00 forecast would represent substantial relief from current levels and would align more closely with the earlier 2026 expectations. However, this remains a conditional prediction dependent on external events beyond the Treasury’s control. Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi offers a more cautious middle-ground forecast, expecting prices to settle around $3.50 per gallon by the end of 2026.
This prediction acknowledges that while prices may decline from current levels, they are unlikely to fall as far as Bessent suggests. Zandi’s analysis incorporates ongoing geopolitical tensions and assumes only gradual normalization of supply disruptions. At $3.50 per gallon by December, prices would still be considerably higher than the pre-disruption forecasts but lower than current levels, suggesting a volatile but ultimately declining price path for the remainder of the year. These official predictions create a cone of possibility: at best, $3.00 per gallon; more likely, $3.50; and presently, $4.55. The gap between the optimistic and realistic scenarios suggests substantial uncertainty remains. Drivers making summer travel plans face the possibility of significantly different fuel costs depending on whether Bessent’s optimism or Zandi’s cautious outlook proves more accurate.
The Worst-Case Scenario: What If Geopolitical Tensions Escalate?
Not all forecasters are optimistic. Macquarie Group strategists have issued a stark warning: if Iran-U.S. conflict extends into summer 2026, crude oil could spike toward $200 per barrel. At that level, pump prices would rise sharply toward $7 per gallon nationally, with some regions potentially exceeding that mark. Macquarie assigned a 40 percent probability to this worst-case outcome, suggesting it’s far from hypothetical—it’s a realistic downside risk that deserves serious consideration. This worst-case scenario is not merely academic. The Strait of Hormuz disruption already reflects real tensions; further escalation would tighten supplies even more dramatically.
If crude reaches $200 per barrel, the economic consequences extend well beyond higher pump prices. Airlines would face dramatically higher fuel costs, pushing ticket prices up. Shipping companies would pass costs to consumers through higher goods prices. The broader economy would feel the inflationary pressure across transportation-dependent sectors. A $7-per-gallon scenario is the kind of event that reshapes consumer behavior and potentially triggers recession warnings. The limitation of worst-case analysis is that it assumes a specific geopolitical pathway. Forecasters cannot predict with certainty whether tensions will escalate, de-escalate, or remain stable. What matters for consumers and businesses is recognizing that $7 per gallon, while unlikely on Bessent’s and Zandi’s base cases, remains materially possible and should factor into planning for high-cost scenarios.
The Summer Switch and Seasonal Price Patterns
Summer-blend gasoline enters the market in late spring and continues through early fall, required by environmental regulations in many U.S. regions. This seasonal shift has historically added 15 to 30 cents per gallon to the pump price because summer blend is more expensive to produce—it requires different additives and refinery configurations than winter blend. This year, that seasonal premium arrives on top of the geopolitical premium already factoring into prices, creating a double pressure on consumers.
Understanding the seasonal pattern helps explain why current prices might not represent a permanent new baseline. When fall arrives and refineries switch back to winter blend, pump prices typically decline as the production cost advantage shifts. However, that seasonal relief only materializes if the underlying geopolitical situation improves. If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted in September, refiners will still face supply constraints when switching blends, potentially dampening the seasonal price decline that drivers typically enjoy.
What Comes Next—Monitoring the Summer Ahead
As summer 2026 approaches, drivers and businesses face genuine uncertainty about fuel costs. The range of outcomes—from Bessent’s optimistic $3.00 to Macquarie’s feared $7.00—encompasses a five-fold variation in pump prices. No single forecast can be relied upon with confidence. Instead, what matters is watching the Strait of Hormuz situation closely.
If that disruption resolves and geopolitical tensions ease, Bessent’s optimism becomes credible. If tensions escalate further, the worst-case scenarios begin to look less remote. The broader takeaway is that 2026 represents a transition year where earlier optimistic fuel-cost forecasts have collided with geopolitical reality. Consumers and businesses should monitor global events, adjust summer travel budgeting to account for uncertainty, and recognize that regional price differences mean that geography will remain a major determinant of individual fuel costs. The summer driving season will likely prove far more expensive than many drivers planned for just a few months ago.
Conclusion
Summer 2026 gas prices will likely surprise many drivers, though in which direction remains uncertain. Current prices at $4.55 per gallon are already substantially elevated compared to May 2025, and seasonal adjustments combined with geopolitical disruptions have upended earlier forecasts of cheaper fuel. Official predictions range from Treasury optimism at $3.00 per gallon to Moody’s more cautious $3.50 forecast, with worst-case scenarios from strategists warning of $7 per gallon if Middle Eastern tensions escalate.
These competing forecasts leave drivers facing genuine uncertainty as they plan summer travel and budget for transportation costs. The path forward depends on external events beyond consumer control: whether the Strait of Hormuz disruption resolves, whether geopolitical tensions ease or escalate, and how quickly global oil supplies normalize. Drivers should monitor these developments, recognize that regional variations mean some states will experience far higher costs than others, and plan summer budgets with enough flexibility to accommodate the realistic range of outcomes. In a year when fuel forecasts have already been rewritten once, certainty is the one commodity in shortest supply.