Yes, the national average gas price is poised to rise further this month. As of May 7, 2026, the national average for regular gasoline stands at $4.55 per gallon—up 25 cents over the second consecutive week—and industry analysts warn that prices could climb even higher before summer driving season peaks. This marks a startling $1.40 increase compared to May 2025, leaving American drivers facing some of the highest fuel costs in recent years. The question isn’t whether prices will rise; it’s how much further they’ll go before market conditions shift.
The trajectory is clear and troubling. Consecutive weekly increases signal momentum rather than temporary volatility. A driver filling up a 15-gallon tank today pays roughly $68.25—compared to $53.25 just one year ago, an extra $15 per fill-up. For families managing tight household budgets, these incremental increases compound into real financial strain over the course of a month.
Table of Contents
- What’s Driving the Surge in National Average Gas Prices?
- Regional Price Variations and What They Reveal About Supply Chain Weakness
- Supply Chain Disruption and Inventory Depletion
- Price Forecasts and What Economic Models Predict
- Policy Responses and Government Accountability
- Historical Context and How Current Prices Compare
- What Comes Next: Summer Driving Season and Beyond
- Conclusion
What’s Driving the Surge in National Average Gas Prices?
The primary culprit is geopolitical disruption in the Middle East. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical chokepoints for oil transport, has been suspended since early March 2026. This blockade disrupts approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined fuels destined for global markets—a shock that reverberates through U.S. pump prices within days. When that much supply vanishes from the market, refineries compete for available inventory and prices climb accordingly.
A secondary but equally significant pressure comes from domestic supply constraints. U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen for 11 consecutive weeks, a trend driven by refiners shifting capacity toward diesel and jet fuel exports to Europe and Asia. These fuels command higher profit margins in overseas markets, so refineries prioritize them over gasoline intended for the domestic market. The net result: less gasoline on shelves, higher prices at the pump. This represents a deliberate reallocation of production rather than a natural resource shortage—refineries can produce gasoline but choose not to because international demand for other fuels is more profitable.
Regional Price Variations and What They Reveal About Supply Chain Weakness
The price landscape is deeply fractured across states, exposing vulnerabilities in regional supply chains. California drivers face the nation’s highest average at $6.16 per gallon, followed by Washington at $5.76 and Hawaii at $5.66. Meanwhile, drivers in Oklahoma pay just $3.98, Mississippi $4.00, and Louisiana $4.02. This $2-per-gallon spread between California and Oklahoma isn’t random—it reflects different refining capacity, state-specific fuel formulations, and distance from supply sources. California’s price premium is particularly instructive. The state requires special fuel blends to meet emission standards, a regulatory requirement that increases production costs and limits where that fuel can be sourced.
During supply disruptions like the current Strait of Hormuz suspension, California cannot simply import cheaper fuel from other states because it doesn’t meet specifications. Refineries serving California therefore operate with tighter margins during disruption periods and pass higher costs to consumers. Drivers in lower-cost states like Louisiana and Mississippi benefit from proximity to the Gulf Coast refining cluster and lower regulatory requirements—they can source fuel more flexibly when international supplies tighten. The limitation here is important: these regional price differences are structural and unlikely to equalize anytime soon. Federal policy could theoretically relax California’s fuel formulation requirements, but doing so would require environmental trade-offs that the state has rejected. Consumers in high-price regions are essentially locked into paying more unless they relocate.
Supply Chain Disruption and Inventory Depletion
The 11-week decline in U.S. gasoline inventories is not accidental; it’s the cumulative result of deliberate business decisions. Refiners have reduced gasoline output as a percentage of total capacity because diesel and jet fuel are more profitable in global markets right now. This shift is economically rational from a corporate standpoint—refineries maximize shareholder returns by producing high-margin products—but it creates pain for American motorists who depend on a steady gasoline supply. Consider the timeline: the Strait of Hormuz disruption began in early March, and inventories have been falling since. Over an 11-week period, this compounds.
Gasoline inventories typically rise heading into summer as refineries ramp up production to meet the seasonal driving surge. Instead, inventories are shrinking. This suggests that when June and July arrive, with millions of Americans taking road trips, supply will be even tighter and prices even higher. The normal seasonal pattern that sometimes brings relief to consumers is being overridden by supply constraints. The specific risk: If inventories continue to fall through May and early June, and if middle east tensions persist or worsen, gasoline prices could spike dramatically when summer demand peaks. Consumers anticipating lower prices due to seasonal patterns will likely be disappointed.
Price Forecasts and What Economic Models Predict
The Energy Information Administration (EIA), a division of the Department of Energy, forecasts an average of $3.70 per gallon for 2026. This estimate, published before the most recent surge, is already becoming dated. Current prices at $4.55 are well above that forecast—suggesting either that conditions have deteriorated since the forecast was made, or that the EIA’s projections underestimated geopolitical risk. The difference between $3.70 (forecast) and $4.55 (actual) is not trivial for consumers budgeting energy costs. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, takes a longer view.
He predicts that prices will settle around $3.50 per gallon by the end of 2026, assuming Middle East tensions ease. This forecast assumes two critical conditions: that the Strait of Hormuz disruption resolves and that geopolitical dynamics improve. If either assumption proves wrong, prices could remain elevated throughout 2026. The tradeoff between these forecasts is significant: the difference between $3.50 and $4.55 per gallon represents hundreds of dollars annually for a typical household, and the Moody’s projection assumes diplomatic or military resolution of Middle East conflict—not a certainty. For consumers, the practical implication is clear: if you’re planning a major road trip this summer, consider booking accommodations sooner rather than later or building fuel cost assumptions based on current prices rather than historical averages. Betting on a return to $3.50 gasoline by year’s end is reasonable, but it’s not guaranteed.
Policy Responses and Government Accountability
The Trump administration has limited direct tools to lower gas prices. The president can release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—a move that adds supply temporarily—or pressure OPEC nations to increase production. International diplomacy aimed at resolving the Strait of Hormuz blockade could theoretically ease supply pressures. However, none of these tools provide immediate relief, and their effectiveness depends on factors outside U.S.
control. One significant limitation: the administration cannot force American refineries to produce gasoline instead of diesel and jet fuel if those other products are more profitable. Refineries are private businesses optimizing for shareholder returns. Policy tools like tariffs on imported diesel or export restrictions on jet fuel could theoretically redirect refinery output toward gasoline, but such interventions create their own complications—they raise costs for industries dependent on diesel (transportation, agriculture) and reduce revenue from export markets. The warning here is that simplistic solutions to price problems often create secondary problems elsewhere in the economy.
Historical Context and How Current Prices Compare
This month’s $4.55 average is not the highest on record—that distinction belongs to July 2008, when prices briefly exceeded $5 per gallon—but it’s among the most elevated in recent years. The year-over-year increase of $1.40 per gallon is sharp and sustained. Unlike 2008, when prices spiked due to speculation and demand, today’s surge is driven by concrete supply disruptions: a major shipping chokepoint closed and refinery capacity redirected.
The difference matters because it suggests where prices might go. In 2008, prices eventually crashed as speculation unwound and demand fell during the recession. Today, if supply disruptions resolve, prices should decline. But if tensions persist or worsen, prices could remain elevated indefinitely.
What Comes Next: Summer Driving Season and Beyond
The coming weeks will determine whether May’s price increases are a preview of a broader summer surge. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Middle East tensions ease, refineries might gradually return to higher gasoline production, and prices could decline toward the EIA’s $3.70 forecast or Zandi’s $3.50 prediction. Conversely, if the blockade persists or expands, summer prices could spike above $5 per gallon in high-cost states and remain elevated through July and August.
The outlook for 2026 hinges on geopolitical developments largely outside the control of U.S. policymakers. Diplomatic efforts to stabilize the Middle East would have immediate and measurable economic benefits at home. Until those efforts bear fruit, American drivers should expect prices to remain above historical averages.
Conclusion
The national average gas price of $4.55 per gallon, having risen 25 cents in just two weeks, signals further increases ahead unless supply disruptions ease. The underlying causes—a Middle East chokepoint closure and domestic refinery decisions to prioritize more profitable fuels—are real and sustained, not temporary volatility.
Consumers face a summer driving season where prices are likely to remain elevated, and the EIA’s forecast of $3.70 per gallon for 2026 appears increasingly optimistic. The path forward depends on resolution of Middle East tensions and on whether refineries eventually redirect more capacity toward gasoline production. Until then, households should budget for fuel costs of $4.50 or higher, plan travel efficiently to minimize fill-ups, and monitor official government sources like the EIA and AAA for real-time price trends.