Yes, refinery problems are actively pushing gas prices higher, and there’s no relief in sight. The national average hit $4.55 per gallon on May 7, 2026—up 25 cents in just one week and climbing steadily since late April. Major refineries like Phillips 66’s Wood River facility in Illinois (which processes 356,000 barrels per day) and Marathon’s Robinson refinery have been offline for extended maintenance precisely when fuel demand is rising, creating a supply crunch that refiners are passing directly to consumers at the pump. With multiple facilities still down through mid-May and geopolitical disruptions cutting refining capacity worldwide, the question isn’t whether refinery problems are making prices worse—it’s how much worse they’ll get before capacity returns.
The math is straightforward. When refinery capacity drops by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day during spring maintenance season, the remaining facilities can’t make up the difference fast enough. Prices have jumped nearly $1.40 per gallon compared to May 2025, a 17.34% increase in just one month. The wholesale futures market is pricing gasoline at $3.52 per gallon, but retail prices have ballooned far beyond that, suggesting refiners and distributors are banking on sustained supply tightness. Unless planned maintenance wraps up ahead of schedule or geopolitical tensions ease, consumers should expect prices to stay elevated or climb further toward the $5-per-gallon threshold that would match the 2022 record.
Table of Contents
- How Are Refinery Maintenance Outages Affecting Your Local Gas Prices?
- The Global Refinery Crisis Behind Higher Prices
- Why Is the Gas Price Increase So Steep in Just One Month?
- What Should Consumers Do About High Gas Prices Right Now?
- Could Gas Prices Hit $5 Per Gallon Again?
- How Are Refiners Profiting While Consumers Suffer?
- What Comes Next: Summer Driving Season and Supply Recovery Timeline
- Conclusion
How Are Refinery Maintenance Outages Affecting Your Local Gas Prices?
Two major Midwest refineries have been offline simultaneously, and the timing couldn’t be worse for consumers. Phillips 66’s Wood River refinery completed a 45-day maintenance cycle in late February, removing 356,000 barrels per day from the market. Meanwhile, Marathon’s Robinson refinery in Illinois came offline in mid-March for planned maintenance that wasn’t scheduled to end until mid-May—overlapping with warm weather when Americans drive more and demand for fuel spikes. Combined, these two facilities process over 600,000 barrels daily under normal conditions, making their simultaneous absence a significant supply shock.
The impact rippled across the Midwest and beyond. Indiana refinery problems that emerged in early May were severe enough that gasBuddy predicted regional prices could drop 20 to 40 cents once the issues resolved. That prediction highlights how sensitive gas prices are to refinery capacity—even localized production problems can move the needle dramatically. Consumers in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and surrounding states paid a premium during this period because their regional supply contracted while demand remained high. By mid-May, as some facilities came back online, prices did begin to ease slightly, but the gap between wholesale and retail prices remained suspiciously wide, suggesting retailers were slow to pass savings along.
The Global Refinery Crisis Behind Higher Prices
Beyond domestic maintenance, global refinery disruptions are compressing worldwide gasoline supply and pushing crude oil prices higher. Asian refineries cut more than 3 million barrels per day of capacity due to geopolitical attacks, and April refining runs across the Middle East dropped 6 million barrels per day to just 77.2 million barrels daily. The Strait of Hormuz blockade, which suspended shipping in early March and disrupted the flow of approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined fuel, created a cascading shortage that raised crude prices and made existing refinery constraints even costlier. Brent crude hit $118 per barrel by the end of March 2026—nearly double the $61 per barrel price at the start of the year.
That crude cost explosion feeds directly into gasoline prices. Distillate crack spreads (the profit margin refiners earn on fuel products) hit $1.42 per gallon at new york Harbor in March, the highest monthly level since 2022. The limitation here is critical: even if domestic refineries finish maintenance on schedule, crude oil prices won’t fall unless geopolitical tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz blockade fully lifts. Consumers are essentially paying for multiple layers of supply disruption simultaneously, and short-term relief depends on factors entirely outside the control of U.S. refinery operators.
Why Is the Gas Price Increase So Steep in Just One Month?
The 17.34% jump in gasoline prices over one month reflects a perfect storm of supply and demand pressures colliding at once. Spring maintenance season is routine, but doing it during a period of high crude oil costs and geopolitical supply disruptions is particularly painful. Refiners scheduled their maintenance believing crude would be moderately priced; instead, they’re returning facilities to a market where input costs are sky-high, so they’re immediately raising output prices to protect margins. Demand reinforces the problem. As temperatures warm and Americans prepare for summer travel, fuel consumption rises naturally.
Refineries can’t add capacity quickly to meet that demand surge—they can only recover existing capacity from maintenance. In the interim, the gap between supply and demand widens, pushing prices up. A specific example: consumers who filled up on April 30 paid $4.27 per gallon; those same drivers on May 7 paid $4.55. That 25-cent jump in one week illustrates the speed at which prices can move when supply tightens and demand strengthens simultaneously. The EIA is forecasting a 2026 average of $3.70 per gallon for gasoline, but that forecast assumed crude would moderate and geopolitical tensions would ease—assumptions that have not held true so far.
What Should Consumers Do About High Gas Prices Right Now?
No single consumer action will lower gas prices, but several strategies can minimize the damage to your wallet. First, avoid driving unnecessary routes; carpooling to work, combining errands into single trips, and postponing road trips until June (when some refinery maintenance ends) can meaningfully reduce fuel expenses. Second, monitor regional price variations—gas can differ by 30 to 50 cents per gallon across nearby cities because supply and distribution costs vary by location. Apps like GasBuddy and AAA’s fuel finder let you identify cheaper stations, though savings may only last until prices equalize again. Third, consider whether this is the right time to top off your tank on a road trip; if you’re traveling next month, waiting might save hundreds in fuel costs.
The tradeoff is that some of these strategies require planning or flexibility. If you have a fixed work commute, carpooling may not be possible. If you need to drive long distances this week, hunting for cheaper gas across multiple cities might waste more time and fuel than you’d save. For lower-income consumers with inflexible schedules and tight budgets, high gas prices are simply a cost they must absorb. The EIA projects diesel will average $4.80 per gallon in 2026, making it even more expensive than gasoline for fleet operators and trucking companies—costs that will eventually be passed to consumers in the form of higher prices for shipped goods. There’s no magic solution while refinery capacity remains constrained.
Could Gas Prices Hit $5 Per Gallon Again?
The warning here is direct: yes, gas prices could reach $5 per gallon if the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists or worsens. The 2022 record high was $5.02 per gallon, and given that crude is already at $118 per barrel and refinery capacity is constrained, another 45-cent jump would only require a modest additional supply disruption. If a major U.S. refinery experiences an unplanned outage (a mechanical failure, not planned maintenance), if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates, or if crude prices climb another 10-15%, the $5 threshold becomes likely rather than theoretical.
The limitation of forecasting, though, is that outcomes depend on external events nobody can perfectly predict. The EIA forecast of $3.70 average gasoline for 2026 was made before the current refinery crisis fully materialized and the Strait blockade extended this long. Real-time market moves are faster and more volatile than quarterly forecasts. Crude prices can swing $10 per barrel in a single day based on geopolitical news. Consumers planning long trips or major vehicle purchases should assume prices will remain above $4.50 for the next month and budget accordingly, because that’s the most conservative assumption given current facts.
How Are Refiners Profiting While Consumers Suffer?
Refinery margins have widened dramatically. The distillate crack spread of $1.42 per gallon in March is the highest since 2022 because refiners can charge more per gallon of output while their crude input costs, though elevated, haven’t risen as fast as retail prices. A refiner that processes crude at $118 per barrel can produce gasoline and sell it for $4.55 per gallon—a substantial profit per unit.
This is economically rational during supply shortages, but it also means refiners have little incentive to expedite their maintenance or push through unforeseen obstacles quickly. This dynamic creates a moral hazard. Refiners know prices will be high for the next few weeks, so why rush back online if delays aren’t penalized by consumers or competitors? They’re maximizing profit on every barrel processed, making the current situation financially rewarding for the industry even as consumers pay record prices. This reality doesn’t excuse high prices—it simply explains why market mechanics alone won’t bring relief until either refinery capacity fully returns or crude prices fall substantially.
What Comes Next: Summer Driving Season and Supply Recovery Timeline
Summer driving season typically runs from May through September, which means fuel demand will remain elevated for the next four months. The good news is that major refinery maintenance is ending. The Marathon Robinson refinery is scheduled to return to full production by mid-May, and other facilities coming offline for routine work won’t start simultaneous maintenance again until fall. If no new geopolitical disruptions occur and the Strait of Hormuz remains unblocked, refinery output should approach normal levels by June, potentially easing prices downward by 20 to 40 cents per gallon. The forward-looking challenge is that crude prices remain high and volatile.
Even with U.S. refinery capacity fully recovered, if Brent crude stays above $100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, gasoline will stay above $4.00 per gallon. Consumers should watch two indicators closely: refinery operating rates (reported weekly by the EIA) and crude oil prices. When refinery utilization climbs back above 90% and crude begins trending downward, that’s the signal that relief is genuinely arriving. Until then, prices will likely stay elevated or continue climbing if crude spikes further.
Conclusion
Refinery maintenance problems are absolutely pushing gas prices higher right now, and the pressure isn’t easing until at least mid-May when major facilities return online. The national average of $4.55 per gallon reflects a combination of planned refinery outages, geopolitical supply disruptions, and strong seasonal demand. Consumers have limited power to lower prices individually, but understanding the mechanics—supply constraints, crude cost volatility, and refinery margin expansion—can help you make better decisions about when and where to fill up over the coming weeks.
The realistic outlook is that relief will be gradual, not sudden. Prices might drop 20 to 40 cents per gallon if refinery maintenance completes on schedule and geopolitical tensions don’t escalate. However, crude prices could stay elevated for months if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, keeping gasoline prices closer to $4.50 than the $3.70 average the EIA originally projected. Plan your summer driving with the assumption that $4.00-plus-per-gallon gas is the new normal for the foreseeable future, and you won’t be caught off guard when prices fail to drop as quickly as hoped.