Yes, experts are warning drivers to prepare for sustained gas price volatility. The national average gasoline price has climbed to $4.56 per gallon as of late May 2026, representing a 3-cent increase from the previous week and a concerning $1.38 jump compared to May 2025. This pricing mirrors conditions not seen since the 2022 Memorial Day weekend, when prices hit $4.61 per gallon. Multiple experts point to geopolitical disruptions, tightening global oil supplies, and sustained summer demand as factors likely to keep prices elevated and unpredictable through the coming months.
The volatility experts warn about stems from factors far beyond typical seasonal fluctuations. Regional price disparities underscore this unpredictability—while the national average sits at $4.56, California drivers are paying $6.14 per gallon, while Mississippi drivers face $4.01. These regional extremes reflect different refinery capacity, fuel standards, and state-level policy differences, but they also signal that local conditions can create sharp surprises in either direction. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that Brent crude oil will average around $106 per barrel during May and June 2026, then decline to $89 by the fourth quarter—but even that gradual descent depends on geopolitical tensions easing as expected. If those conditions don’t materialize, drivers should understand that prices could remain elevated well into fall.
Table of Contents
- What Geopolitical Disruptions Are Keeping Gas Prices High?
- What Do Energy Experts Actually Predict for Gas Prices?
- How Do Middle East Supply Disruptions Ripple Through Global Markets?
- What Should Drivers Expect During Summer 2026 and Beyond?
- What Hidden Factors Create Volatility Beyond Headlines?
- Why Do Regional Price Differences Matter for Your Wallet?
- Looking Ahead: When Can Drivers Expect Prices to Fall?
- Conclusion
What Geopolitical Disruptions Are Keeping Gas Prices High?
The primary driver of current volatility is a cascade of supply disruptions across the Middle East. As of April 2026, crude oil production shutdowns in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively removed 10.5 million barrels per day from global markets. That’s roughly 10 percent of worldwide daily oil production simply offline. To put this in perspective, the entire United States produces about 13 million barrels per day—so these regional disruptions are equivalent to losing production capacity comparable to a major producing nation. Compounding this supply crunch is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping passage through which roughly 30 percent of the world’s seaborne oil flows.
The EIA’s May 2026 outlook assumes the strait remains effectively closed through late May, with shipping traffic expected to resume in June. This assumption underpins analyst forecasts, but it also highlights a significant risk: if tensions persist and the strait doesn’t reopen as expected, prices would likely spike much higher than current predictions. Global inventory levels are also falling rapidly, with drawdowns averaging 8.5 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2026. When supplies are shrinking this quickly, markets grow nervous, and prices typically respond by moving higher. analysts warn that this inventory depletion creates a vulnerability—any additional supply disruption, unexpected geopolitical development, or surge in summer driving demand could quickly push prices substantially upward.
What Do Energy Experts Actually Predict for Gas Prices?
The Energy Information Administration provides a baseline forecast that Brent crude will average $106 per barrel in May and June 2026, then decline gradually to $89 per barrel by the fourth quarter and further to $79 per barrel in 2027. If this scenario plays out, it would imply some relief at the pump in the months ahead. However, this forecast is built on specific assumptions: that geopolitical tensions ease, that the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June as expected, and that no major new disruptions emerge. The critical limitation in any price forecast is that volatility—by definition—means actual outcomes could deviate substantially from the baseline scenario.
The EIA explicitly warns that geopolitical events, weather disruptions, and changes in market sentiment can cause sharp price movements in either direction. A military escalation, a hurricane that damages refining capacity, or a surprise announcement of supply cuts could quickly invalidate even well-reasoned forecasts. drivers should treat these EIA projections as the expected path, not a guarantee. For natural gas prices, which can influence electricity costs and some transportation fuels, the EIA projects Henry Hub prices averaging $3.50 per million BTU in 2026 and $3.18 in 2027. This forecast suggests modestly improving conditions, but again with the same caveat: major supply or demand shocks could alter the trajectory significantly.
How Do Middle East Supply Disruptions Ripple Through Global Markets?
The current Middle Eastern production shutdown is not a temporary disruption from a single facility or brief conflict, but a sustained, multi-nation event. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain represent some of the world’s largest crude producers, and their collective offline production of 10.5 million barrels per day is enormous in scale. For context, these six nations combined produced roughly 28 million barrels per day before the disruptions—so the shutdowns represent about 37 percent of their typical output. This disruption cascades through global markets with multiple effects. First, oil companies scramble to source crude from alternative suppliers, driving up prices for available supply. Second, refineries worldwide must adjust their operations for different crude qualities, potentially creating temporary processing bottlenecks.
Third, shipping and logistics costs spike as tankers navigate alternative routes or wait for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. All of these factors converge to push retail gasoline prices higher than they would be under normal supply conditions. The Strait of Hormuz closure compounds this effect. This narrow waterway is irreplaceable—it’s the only practical route for oil shipments from the Persian Gulf to global markets. When the strait is effectively closed, oil exporters in the region cannot move their product, and alternative suppliers from other regions cannot fully compensate for lost Gulf supply. The EIA estimates shipping traffic will resume in June 2026, but that assumption carries significant uncertainty. If the strait remains closed beyond June, prices would likely jump sharply higher.
What Should Drivers Expect During Summer 2026 and Beyond?
Drivers should prepare for elevated gas prices through at least June and July 2026, the peak of summer driving season. This combination of constrained supply and high demand typically creates the worst-case scenario for pump prices. The AAA and EIA analyses both note that sustained demand during summer travel season combined with geopolitical supply disruptions means prices are likely to remain elevated. A family planning a summer road trip should budget for $4.50 to $5.00 per gallon in most of the country, with California and some northeastern states potentially exceeding $5.50. The tradeoff between early summer driving and waiting for prices to decline is not straightforward. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June as expected and Middle Eastern production comes back online gradually, prices should begin moderating in the third quarter.
Delaying a road trip from June to August or September could save 20 to 30 cents per gallon under the baseline forecast—but that forecast depends on geopolitical conditions improving. Conversely, if disruptions continue or new ones emerge, waiting offers no benefit and prices could rise further. The EIA’s longer-term forecast suggests more meaningful relief by fall and into 2027. Brent crude declining to $89 per barrel by the fourth quarter would translate to gasoline prices in the $4.00 to $4.25 range for most of the country, a substantial improvement from current levels. However, this improvement depends on the forecast scenario materializing. Drivers should treat the baseline case as hopeful but not certain.
What Hidden Factors Create Volatility Beyond Headlines?
Weather and seasonal refinery maintenance are often overlooked drivers of volatility. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, and a single major hurricane striking the Gulf of Mexico could damage offshore platforms or refineries, instantly removing supply and spiking prices. The EIA’s forecast incorporates normal seasonal weather patterns, not major disruptions. A hurricane season worse than expected could substantially raise prices above predictions. Refinery capacity also plays a critical role. As liquefaction capacity expands globally for liquefied natural gas exports, it absorbs resources and attention that might otherwise support crude oil refining. Additionally, several U.S.
refineries are aging and face periodic maintenance outages. A larger-than-expected refinery closure during summer would tighten supplies and push prices higher. Analysts warn that the U.S. refining industry has less slack than it did ten years ago, meaning supply disruptions now have larger price impacts. Finally, market sentiment and speculation can amplify price movements. When uncertainty is high—as it is now with geopolitical tensions—traders become more cautious and build inventory positions at higher prices, which supports elevated price levels. Conversely, if news breaks that tensions are easing or supplies are returning, traders may rapidly reverse positions, causing prices to fall more sharply than physical supply conditions alone would justify.
Why Do Regional Price Differences Matter for Your Wallet?
The gap between California at $6.14 per gallon and Mississippi at $4.01 per gallon represents real dollars in drivers’ wallets. A driver in California filling a 15-gallon tank pays $92.10, while the same fill-up in Mississippi costs $60.15—a difference of $32 per tank, or potentially hundreds of dollars per year. These regional differences stem from several factors: California’s unique fuel standards, limited refinery capacity within the state, and higher transportation costs for fuel brought in from outside refineries. Mississippi, by contrast, has lower transportation costs to major Gulf refineries, fewer local fuel standards mandates, and greater supply options.
The tradeoff is that Mississippi drivers are more exposed to Gulf disruptions, while California drivers pay an ongoing premium for local environmental standards and constrained supply. Neither approach is universally “better”—they reflect policy choices with real costs to consumers. These regional disparities also matter for understanding inflation and regional economic impacts. In high-price states like California, the cost of living rises more sharply during periods of elevated crude prices, affecting trucking, delivery, and transportation services across the economy.
Looking Ahead: When Can Drivers Expect Prices to Fall?
The EIA’s baseline forecast suggests meaningful price relief beginning in the third quarter of 2026, as Brent crude declines from $106 to $89 per barrel. This implies gasoline prices falling from current $4.56 levels to approximately $4.00 to $4.25 by September or October. For longer-term relief, the forecast calls for further declines into 2027, with crude oil moving toward the $79 per barrel range. At those levels, gasoline would likely average $3.50 to $3.75 nationally—still higher than 2020 lows but more aligned with historical norms.
The critical question is whether the assumptions underlying this forecast hold. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June, Middle Eastern production ramps back online, and no new disruptions emerge, the baseline case should materialize. If those conditions fail—if the strait stays closed, if Saudi Arabia or others extend production cuts, or if a new crisis emerges—then prices could remain elevated for much longer. Drivers should watch news coverage of Middle East developments closely, as geopolitical headlines are now the primary price driver.
Conclusion
Experts are correct to warn drivers about sustained gas price volatility. With the national average at $4.56 per gallon, prices are at four-year highs driven by significant Middle East production disruptions, the Strait of Hormuz closure, and rapid inventory drawdowns. The EIA forecasts gradual relief beginning in the third quarter of 2026, but this baseline depends on geopolitical tensions easing and disrupted supplies coming back online as expected. Drivers should prepare for elevated prices through at least July, with some relief likely in fall 2026 and more meaningful improvement in 2027—barring unforeseen developments.
The most practical approach is to acknowledge volatility as the likely condition for the foreseeable future rather than waiting for a clear reversal. Summer travel plans should budget for $4.50 to $5.00 per gallon in most states. Monitoring geopolitical news and EIA outlook updates will provide early warning of any deviations from the baseline forecast. For drivers seeking the most leverage on timing, pushing major fuel-consuming activities—road trips, errands, large vehicle use—into fall months when prices are expected to moderate could yield meaningful savings.