When the FT and the NYT published reports on Oct. 23-24 saying a former Polar LNG chief executive believes Russia’s Novatek was secretly bankrolling the Alaska gas venture, many readers reached for an old frame: the Mueller Russia probe. The comparison is useful, but only if it is precise about what investigators found in 2019 and what, so far, is only an allegation in 2026.
Where it stands: The latest status line, from an FT summary that Business Standard ran Oct. 25, reads: “No US authority has publicly established that the alleged financing constituted a sanctions violation.” Nothing resembling the 2017-19 special counsel inquiry has been opened into Polar LNG.
The 2026 story is also heavily disputed. Polar LNG told Bloomberg that former CEO Joel Riddle is a “disgruntled former employee” it terminated, and told the FT its work is in “full compliance with applicable US laws.” Novatek denied to the FT that sanctions relief is a condition of its involvement, and the venture’s Emirati owner, Tech Wave, denied that Novatek has any ownership in it. An unnamed American official said to the FT that the plan “has only been broadly and briefly mentioned” to the administration, and a spokesman for Donald Trump Jr. said he has drifted apart from investor Gentry Beach, who separately negotiated with Novatek.
What the Mueller Russia probe established
Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s two-volume report, now archived on justice.gov, drew a careful line between interference by Russia, which it documented in detail, and conspiracy by Americans, which it did not find. Its central sentence: “the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”
Mueller warned readers not to overread that. “A statement that the investigation did not establish particular facts does not mean there was no evidence of those facts,” the report says.
Three business-and-diplomacy threads from that report echo in 2026 coverage.
Trump Tower Moscow. “Candidate Trump signed a Letter of Intent for Trump Tower Moscow by November 2015,” the report states, and “The Trump Organization pursued the project through at least June 2016, including by considering travel to Russia by Cohen and candidate Trump.” Michael Cohen later admitted lying to Congress about it; the report records that he “pleaded guilty to making false statements to Congress about the Trump Moscow project.” The tower was never built.
The June 2016 meeting. Trump Jr., Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort met a Russian lawyer after an email setting up the meeting offered “official documents and information that would incriminate Hillary.” The report found that “the Russian lawyer’s presentation did not provide such information,” and that the evidence on that meeting was not enough to charge a campaign-finance crime. When Kremlin-linked businessman Umar Kremlev’s payments for Trump Jr.’s 2026 wedding parties came to light, the Associated Press recalled that meeting as “a critical element of investigations into whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Russia to meddle in the election to help Trump win.”
Sanctions during the transition. The report notes that “On December 29, 2016, then-President Obama imposed sanctions on Russia for having interfered in the election,” and that incoming national security adviser Michael Flynn asked Russia’s ambassador not to escalate in response. Mueller also wrote that “the investigation did not identify evidence that the President-Elect asked Flynn to make any request to Kislyak.” Flynn later “pleaded guilty to lying about his interactions with Russian Ambassador Kislyak during the transition period.”
On obstruction, the report’s conclusion became famous: “while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.”
A name that appears in both eras
The most direct link between 2016 and 2026 is a person. The Mueller report devotes a section to Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, who it says “reported directly to Putin and frequently referred to Putin” as his boss. After the 2016 election, Dmitriev met Erik Prince in the Seychelles and worked with a friend of Kushner on a policy paper; the report says “Dmitriev and Kushner’s friend collaborated on a short written reconciliation plan for the United States and Russia, which Dmitriev implied had been cleared through Putin.” No one was charged over those contacts.
In 2022 the Treasury Department sanctioned his fund and Dmitriev personally, calling him “a known Putin ally.” By early 2025 he was Moscow’s economic negotiator. After U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh, he told Politico, as quoted by High North News: “It was more a general discussion — maybe joint projects in the Arctic. We specifically discussed the Arctic.” In August 2025, Reuters sources said Steve Witkoff “met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev” in Moscow, with LNG equipment for Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 among the ideas discussed, per gCaptain’s syndication. Our Dmitriev profile traces his role.
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What is alleged in 2026, and by whom
The Novatek-Alaska story has a different shape. It does not involve an election, and none of the reporting accuses Trump or his family of coordinating with Russia. The core claim belongs to Riddle, who told the FT: “I resigned as chief executive of Polar LNG because I felt uncomfortable that the Russian company Novatek was financing and ultimately controlling the strategic direction of the company.”
The NYT, per Raw Story’s summary, reported texts in which Novatek’s top two executives talked about moving up to $15 million to Tech Wave, and said Putin brought up the Alaska plan with Witkoff and Kushner in September. The paper also reported that it found no indication the envoys knew about the venture’s Novatek links. Details of the allegations are in our news report and our account of the Kremlin talks.
The sanctions question also looks different. In 2016 the issue was whether a transition official undercut sanctions just imposed. In 2026 the president used an explicit statutory waiver power in the Graham Act on Oct. 16; a White House spokesperson’s statement, reported by ABC News, said “Enforcing the sanctions provisions now would impede ongoing U.S. efforts to negotiate a durable and comprehensive peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.” Critics disagree with the policy, but the waiver itself is an official, public act.
Then and now, side by side
| Era / issue | What was alleged | What officials found |
|---|---|---|
| 2016: election interference | Campaign coordinated with Russia | Interference proven; conspiracy not established |
| 2015-16: Trump Tower Moscow | Business pursued in Russia during campaign | Documented; Cohen pleaded guilty to lying to Congress |
| 2016-17: Flynn and sanctions | Back-channel on Obama sanctions | Flynn pleaded guilty to false statements |
| 2016-17: Dmitriev outreach | Kremlin-linked back channel | Documented; no charges |
| 2026: Polar LNG financing | Novatek secretly funded and steered venture (Riddle) | No finding as of Oct. 26 |
| 2026: Putin-envoy talks | Alaska gas raised in peace talks (NYT) | No probe announced; NYT says no sign envoys knew of ties |
Why the comparison has limits
Mueller’s conclusions came out of a formal criminal investigation that could compel testimony before a grand jury. The Polar LNG story is days old, rests largely on one former executive and on text messages two newspapers reviewed, and has not been tested by any investigator with legal authority. Treasury told the FT only that it takes “potential violations extremely seriously” while declining to discuss the allegations.
What carries over is a pattern critics have long cited: Russian state-linked figures pairing diplomacy with business opportunities, and people near Trump appearing at the edges. Whether that pattern means anything in the Alaska case is a question the record cannot yet answer. For the broader argument over the story’s significance, see our analysis of whether it is Trump’s biggest scandal. As of Oct. 26, no regulator had announced any action involving Polar LNG.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Mueller Russia probe conclude?
Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s 2019 report found that Russia interfered in the 2016 election and that the campaign had numerous Russian contacts, but it did not establish that the campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government. On obstruction, it neither concluded that Trump committed a crime nor exonerated him.
Did the Mueller report mention Kirill Dmitriev?
Yes. It described how Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, sought contacts with the incoming administration after the 2016 election, including a January 2017 meeting with Erik Prince in the Seychelles and a reconciliation plan shared with a friend of Jared Kushner. Reuters has since described him as Putin’s investment envoy in talks with the U.S.
Is the Novatek-Alaska story being investigated like the Russia probe?
No comparable investigation has been announced. Through October 26, Polar LNG had not been the subject of any announced federal finding of a violation, and no special counsel or congressional probe of the company had been reported.
Is Trump accused of wrongdoing in the Polar LNG reports?
No. The reports center on former CEO Joel Riddle’s claim that Novatek financed and steered the company. The New York Times said Putin raised the plan with Trump’s envoys but found no indication they knew of the Novatek ties, and no report says Trump or his family has a stake.
Sources
- Report On The Investigation Into Russian Interference In The 2016 Presidential Election (Volumes I and II) — U.S. Department of Justice, Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III, March 2019
- Treasury Prohibits Transactions with Central Bank of Russia and Imposes Sanctions on Key Sources of Russia’s Wealth — U.S. Department of the Treasury, February 28, 2022
- Russia and US Talks Joint Arctic Energy Projects After Saudi Meeting — High North News, February 19, 2025
- US and Russian Officials Discussed Energy Deals Alongside Latest Ukraine Peace Talks — Reuters (via gCaptain), August 26, 2025
- Whistleblower CEO quits over hidden Russian cash behind gas deal in Trump peace talks: NYT — Raw Story, October 24, 2026
- Former CEO: Russian Firm Backed Alaska Gas Venture — Newsmax (via Yahoo News), October 24, 2026
- Alaska LNG export terminal got funding from Russia’s sanctioned Novatek before US nod—FT report — ThePrint (Bloomberg wire), October 24, 2026
- Top executives quit $25 bn US gas project over alleged Russian control — Business Standard, October 25, 2026
- Russian oligarch says Donald Trump Jr. has paid him back for wedding celebration expenses — Associated Press (via WCAX), October 6, 2026
- Trump signs order waiving Graham Act sanctions on Russia, drawing backlash from some lawmakers and Zelenskyy — ABC News, October 17, 2026
This article is news reporting and analysis based on the public sources listed above, as they stood on the dates shown. Where officials, lawmakers or analysts disagree, including on whether an action is lawful, their positions are attributed to them; Donald Trump Class Action is not a court and nothing here is legal advice. Facts in a developing story can change.