Yes, analysts are warning about serious potential supply problems that could push gasoline prices even higher. As of May 8, 2026, the national average gasoline price stands at $4.55 per gallon—already elevated due to ongoing supply constraints. The core issue is straightforward: global oil supply has been severely disrupted since March 2026 when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suspended, cutting off approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined fuels from reaching global markets. With U.S. gasoline inventories falling for 11 consecutive weeks straight, the pressure on prices is real and potentially worsening.
JPMorgan Chase analysts have issued a stark warning that gasoline could legitimately reach $5 per gallon in the coming months. This isn’t speculation—it’s based on concrete supply constraints. The problem isn’t just the Middle East disruption. Refineries worldwide are prioritizing production of jet fuel and diesel over gasoline, which means less fuel available at the pump even as crude oil supplies tighten. Crude oil futures are trading around $103-104 per barrel, and analysts expect Brent crude to peak at $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, which would push gasoline prices toward that concerning $5 threshold.
Table of Contents
- Why Are Analysts Warning About Supply Problems Right Now?
- The Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Its Real Impact on Your Gas Tank
- What Analysts Are Forecasting for Gas Prices in the Coming Weeks
- How Refinery Decisions Are Making Gasoline More Scarce
- Consumer Impact and the Realities of High Gas Prices
- Historical Context: How This Compares to Past Supply Crises
- What’s Ahead for Gas Prices and Supply in the Next Few Months
- Conclusion
Why Are Analysts Warning About Supply Problems Right Now?
The timing of these warnings is critical because the supply situation has deteriorated faster than many expected. The Strait of Hormuz suspension in early March 2026 removed a crucial chokepoint from global energy markets—roughly 20 percent of the world’s traded oil flows through that passage. When that supply line closes, refineries and oil markets worldwide feel the impact within weeks, not months. The U.S. gasoline inventory decline over 11 consecutive weeks demonstrates this isn’t a temporary blip but a sustained tightening of available fuel.
What makes analysts particularly concerned is the compound nature of the problem. It’s not just crude oil that’s scarce—it’s refined gasoline specifically. Refineries are making strategic decisions to produce more jet fuel and diesel because those products command higher prices and are needed for global shipping and aviation. This production shift means that even if crude oil were more abundant, gasoline availability would still be constrained. The result is a double squeeze: less crude coming to market plus refineries choosing to make less gasoline from what they do have.
The Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Its Real Impact on Your Gas Tank
The suspension of Strait of Hormuz traffic represents the most consequential supply disruption in the market today. This waterway accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, and when it closes, the entire world economy feels it. The 20 million barrels per day that normally flow through the Strait had to find alternate routes or simply didn’t reach their destinations. For American consumers, this translates to reduced global oil supply, higher crude prices, and less refined gasoline available domestically.
Understanding the limitation of workarounds is important: there is no easy alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Oil can be rerouted around Africa or through Russia, but those routes take weeks longer and involve significantly higher transportation costs. This means the supply that’s bypassing the Strait isn’t just delayed—it’s often too expensive to be economical, so it simply stays in the ground or in storage. For the average driver, this means fewer gallons available and higher prices for the gasoline that does reach the pump.
What Analysts Are Forecasting for Gas Prices in the Coming Weeks
JPMorgan Chase’s explicit warning about $5 gasoline is grounded in current market conditions and isn’t alarmism. The bank’s analysts point to refinery operations as a key metric: when refineries cut gasoline production to prioritize jet fuel and diesel, they’re essentially betting that those fuels will remain in high demand and command premium prices. This isn’t unusual—refineries optimize for profit—but it creates a supply crunch for gasoline specifically. If geopolitical tensions remain elevated or worsen, that production shift will likely continue.
The forecast for Brent crude to peak at $115 per barrel in Q2 2026 serves as an early warning for gasoline prices. Historically, every dollar increase in a barrel of crude oil translates to roughly 2.5 cents per gallon at the pump. Using that conversion, crude at $115 per barrel would imply gasoline prices approaching or exceeding $5 per gallon in a worst-case scenario. The “legitimate chance” language from JPMorgan isn’t hyperbole—it’s a calculated assessment that current conditions could push prices to that level if even one of several risk factors worsens.
How Refinery Decisions Are Making Gasoline More Scarce
Refinery operations are the chokepoint most consumers don’t understand but should. A refinery can adjust its output mix—producing more gasoline, more diesel, more jet fuel, or more heating oil depending on market signals and profit incentives. Currently, European and Asian refiners are heavily prioritizing jet fuel and diesel production. Why? Because those products are in tight supply globally, commanding higher prices, and offering better profit margins than gasoline.
The practical consequence is that even when crude oil is available, refineries choose to make less gasoline from it. A refinery running at full capacity doesn’t automatically mean maximum gasoline production—it means optimal output for profit. This represents a significant limitation for consumers relying on historical supply patterns. If a refinery that normally produces 50 percent gasoline and 50 percent other products shifts to 40 percent gasoline and 60 percent other products, that’s a 20 percent reduction in available gasoline even though the refinery is still operating at full throughput.
Consumer Impact and the Realities of High Gas Prices
The warning about supply problems carries real consequences for household budgets. At $4.55 per gallon, the difference between filling up a 15-gallon tank and a 20-gallon tank is roughly $22.75—not trivial for families already managing inflation in food, housing, and utilities. If prices do reach $5 per gallon as analysts warn, that same 15-gallon fill-up becomes $75 instead of $68, an additional $7 per fill-up or roughly $30 per month for a typical driver.
One important limitation to note: not all analysts agree on the $5 ceiling. Some energy economists argue that if prices did spike that high, demand would drop sharply, which would lower prices again. This is theoretically correct but offers little comfort to consumers who would have already paid more at the pump by that point. Additionally, refineries might respond to extreme prices by shifting production back toward gasoline, but that shift takes time—weeks to months—to show up in actual supply numbers.
Historical Context: How This Compares to Past Supply Crises
The 2026 supply situation differs in important ways from the 2008 energy crisis or the 1970s oil embargo. In 2008, crude oil reached $147 per barrel, yet gasoline “only” hit roughly $4.11 per gallon nationally before the financial crisis triggered demand collapse. Currently, we’re at $104 per barrel and $4.55 per gasoline, which suggests tighter refining margins and less gasoline production relative to crude supplies. The Strait of Hormuz closure is also more permanent than past disruptions—it’s not a temporary supply shock but an extended geopolitical situation with no clear resolution timeline.
What makes this situation potentially worse is the refinery shift toward jet fuel and diesel. In 2008, refineries were incentivized to make gasoline because demand was high. Today, they’re deliberately reducing gasoline output while demand remains strong. This structural change in production decisions makes the current supply tightness more severe than crude price alone would suggest.
What’s Ahead for Gas Prices and Supply in the Next Few Months
The second quarter of 2026 represents the critical window according to analyst forecasts. If Brent crude does reach the predicted $115 per barrel, and if refinery production shifts persist, the conditions for $5 gasoline would materialize. However, there are potential moderating factors: demand could weaken if prices spike, reducing price pressure; new refinery capacity could come online in some regions; or geopolitical situations could shift, reopening supply routes.
None of these are guaranteed, which is why analysts maintain that $5 is a “legitimate chance” rather than a certainty. Looking beyond Q2, the question becomes whether the Strait of Hormuz situation resolves and whether global refinery operations normalize. Supply disruptions historically last 6-18 months before equilibrium returns, though geopolitical situations can extend much longer. For consumers, this means the elevated prices we’re seeing in May 2026 could persist well into the summer driving season, making fuel costs a significant household concern for the next several months.
Conclusion
Analysts aren’t crying wolf about gas price and supply problems—they’re reading real market data. A national average of $4.55 per gallon in May 2026, driven by a 20 million barrel-per-day disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and sustained gasoline inventory declines, creates genuine pressure for further price increases. The JPMorgan warning about $5 gasoline is based on specific supply constraints: reduced crude availability, deliberate refinery shifts toward jet fuel and diesel production, and expected continued crude price increases through Q2 2026.
For consumers, the practical reality is to expect prices to remain elevated through at least mid-2026. Track AAA’s weekly price reports, consider adjusting travel plans if prices spike further, and monitor analyst forecasts for signs of supply relief. The supply problems are real, the warnings are justified, and the risk of $5 gasoline is legitimate—not guaranteed, but not unfounded either.