Gas prices are unlikely to reach $5 per gallon in June 2026, according to most mainstream energy forecasts, though prices could approach that threshold before declining. As of May 7, 2026, the national average has climbed to $4.55 per gallon—the highest level since 2022’s $5.01 peak and a jump of 25 cents in just one week. However, energy analysts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), GasBuddy, and Moody’s Analytics all project June prices to settle in the $3.40 to $3.80 range, well below the $5 mark.
The question isn’t whether prices will hit $5 in June, but rather whether recent volatility signals a longer trend or a temporary spike before summer prices normalize. The disconnect between current price spikes and long-term forecasts reflects a volatile market shaped by geopolitical disruptions, seasonal demand patterns, and shifting global oil supplies. While some analysts like GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan have warned that prices could briefly touch $5 or even $6 during the summer driving season, the consensus among official energy forecasters is that June prices will remain manageable, with most projections showing a decline from May’s elevated levels. Understanding these competing predictions requires looking at the data behind current prices, the factors driving volatility, and what experts actually expect for the coming weeks.
Table of Contents
- Why Are Gas Prices Spiking Right Now If June Forecast Is Lower?
- Could Prices Actually Reach $5 Again Despite Expert Forecasts?
- What Do Official Energy Agencies Forecast for June and Summer Prices?
- How Do Current May Prices Compare to Historical Peaks and Future Forecasts?
- What Warnings Should Consumers Know About Price Forecasts?
- What Is Driving the Current Price Spike Beyond the Strait of Hormuz Disruption?
- What Should You Expect for Gas Prices from June Through August?
- Conclusion
Why Are Gas Prices Spiking Right Now If June Forecast Is Lower?
The gap between current price spikes and June forecasts reflects both temporary market shocks and expected seasonal normalization. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of global oil and refined fuel flow, has had suspended traffic since early March 2026, creating a significant supply bottleneck. This geopolitical disruption has pushed crude oil prices higher and directly contributed to the $4.55 national average recorded in early May. Additionally, summer driving season demand is ramping up heading into the Memorial Day weekend, which historically drives gasoline purchases and prices higher in May before settling somewhat in early June.
However, forecasts that show lower prices for June assume either a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz situation or market adjustments that reduce the shock’s impact on retail prices. The EIA projects a summer average of roughly $3.70 per gallon from June through August, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that prices could return to $3 per gallon between June 20 and September 20. This suggests that analysts believe the current spike is temporary—a product of May’s peak driving season combined with geopolitical uncertainty—rather than a permanent shift. The risk, of course, is that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted or if new supply shocks emerge, those lower forecasts could prove optimistic.
Could Prices Actually Reach $5 Again Despite Expert Forecasts?
The possibility of $5 gas in June exists, though the probability is low according to most forecasters, and it depends heavily on how long the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan has warned that gas prices could reach $5 by Memorial Day and potentially climb to $6 later in the summer—a more bearish outlook than mainstream forecasts. If oil production remains severely disrupted and refinery capacity tightens further, prices could technically spike above $4.55, and reaching $5 is not impossible, especially if new geopolitical events or supply shocks occur. However, GasBuddy’s own 2026 annual average forecast of $2.97 per gallon suggests that even their worst-case summer scenario assumes prices return to significantly lower levels by fall.
The key limitation in all price forecasts is their sensitivity to unforeseen events. Oil markets are vulnerable to production disruptions, weather impacts on refineries, strategic petroleum reserve releases or purchases by the government, and changes in global demand. For example, if the Strait of Hormuz situation resolves quickly, prices could fall faster than current projections; conversely, if additional supply shocks emerge, prices could spike higher. Historical precedent shows that $5 gas is not unprecedented—it occurred in 2022—so it’s within the realm of possibility. The difference is that current mainstream forecasts, based on available data and expected supply-demand dynamics, do not center on $5 as a likely outcome for June specifically.
What Do Official Energy Agencies Forecast for June and Summer Prices?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the official energy forecasting arm of the federal government, projects an EIA summer average of approximately $3.70 per gallon for June through August 2026. This forecast is based on expected crude oil prices, refinery utilization rates, and seasonal demand patterns, and it represents a more conservative outlook than current May prices. The EIA’s 2026 annual average projection of $3.70 per gallon further reinforces the expectation that summer prices will be elevated compared to annual averages but will not sustain the $4.55 level seen in early May.
Separately, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi projects prices settling around $3.50 per gallon by the end of 2026, suggesting a gradual decline from current levels throughout the summer and fall. GasBuddy’s 2026 annual average forecast of $2.97 per gallon is notably lower than the EIA’s projection, creating some divergence in expert opinion about long-term price trends. This discrepancy reflects different assumptions about supply disruptions, global demand, and policy responses. For a June-specific forecast, GasBuddy projects prices in the $3.40 to $3.80 range during the summer peak demand season—higher than their annual average but still significantly below $5. The fact that even GasBuddy, which offered the most dire warnings about potential summer spikes, does not project $5 prices as the most likely outcome for June, suggests that the consensus is cautiously optimistic about prices moderating from May’s elevated levels.
How Do Current May Prices Compare to Historical Peaks and Future Forecasts?
The $4.55 national average recorded on May 7, 2026, is the highest price since June 2022, when the national average briefly touched $5.01 per gallon following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This historical context is important: it shows that current prices, while painful for consumers, are not yet at the absolute peak witnessed in recent memory. The $5 threshold has been crossed only once in the past decade, and current forecasts suggest it will not be reached in June, creating a meaningful difference from 2022’s crisis-level prices. However, the fact that prices have climbed so quickly—rising 25 cents in a single week in May—demonstrates the volatility of the oil market and the risks of further increases if new shocks occur.
Looking at the comparison between current levels and June forecasts reveals an expected decline: from $4.55 in May to a projected range of $3.40 to $3.80 in June, with EIA averages of $3.70 for summer. This $0.75 to $1.15 decrease per gallon represents a meaningful relief for consumers, especially those with longer commutes or fuel-dependent businesses. The trade-off in these forecasts is that they assume no major new supply disruptions and some moderation of May’s peak demand spikes. For context, the GasBuddy annual average of $2.97 for 2026 is substantially lower than the EIA’s $3.70, suggesting that both organizations expect prices to decline further by year-end, though their timelines and magnitudes differ.
What Warnings Should Consumers Know About Price Forecasts?
Energy price forecasts are inherently uncertain and should be treated as educated projections rather than guarantees, particularly when geopolitical volatility remains high. The ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which supplies approximately 20 million barrels per day to global markets, is a reminder that forecasts can quickly become outdated if major supply disruptions occur or escalate. Additionally, forecasts made in May do not account for events that may unfold in June or July—hurricane season approaches, and severe weather could damage refineries or disrupt supply chains, potentially pushing prices higher than currently predicted. Consumers should be cautious about assuming prices will automatically decline to $3.70 or $3.50 without monitoring developments in global oil markets and Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Another important limitation is that national averages mask regional variations; some areas face higher prices than others due to local supply chains, state regulations on fuel composition, and transportation costs. For example, California typically sees gas prices 50 cents to $1.00 higher per gallon than the national average, so even if the national average falls to $3.70, California consumers might still face $4.50 to $4.70 at the pump. Finally, none of these forecasts account for potential policy interventions, such as a government release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which could rapidly change market dynamics and prices. Consumers preparing for summer travel should plan for current price levels while hoping for the moderating prices that forecasts predict, but they should also build some flexibility into their budgets in case price relief is delayed.
What Is Driving the Current Price Spike Beyond the Strait of Hormuz Disruption?
The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the primary driver of current elevated prices, but seasonal demand patterns are amplifying its impact. May and June typically see increased gasoline demand as Americans prepare for summer travel, family vacations, and holiday weekends like Memorial Day. Refineries are ramping up production to meet this seasonal surge, and any supply constraints—like those created by the Hormuz disruption—hit harder when demand is already elevated.
Additionally, crude oil prices themselves have climbed due to the supply disruption, and crude is the primary input cost for gasoline production; when crude prices spike, retail gas prices follow within one to two weeks. Global economic conditions also influence oil demand and pricing; if economic growth or travel demand outside the United States increases, it puts additional pressure on oil supplies and prices. The combination of these factors—supply disruption, seasonal demand, elevated crude costs, and global economic dynamics—created the perfect environment for the rapid price spike from early May’s $4.30 to mid-May’s $4.55. Forecasts assume that some of these pressures will ease, demand will moderate after Memorial Day, and supply disruptions will either resolve or be partially offset by market adjustments, including potentially higher prices driving behavioral changes (such as reduced driving) that bring supply and demand back into balance.
What Should You Expect for Gas Prices from June Through August?
The consensus outlook for June through August 2026 is for gradual price moderation from current May levels, with prices settling in the $3.40 to $3.80 range and averaging around $3.70 according to the EIA. This would represent meaningful relief compared to the $4.55 level of May, though still elevated compared to the $2.97 annual average that GasBuddy projects. The summer season typically sees price volatility—hurricane season, planned refinery maintenance, and fluctuations in crude oil prices can all cause week-to-week changes—so expect some ups and downs rather than a smooth decline.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s projection that prices could fall to $3 per gallon between late June and September 20 is at the optimistic end of the forecast range, but it reflects confidence that the current spike is temporary. By the end of summer, most forecasts show prices approaching the $3.50 range, which would be a substantial improvement from current levels and would provide relief heading into the fall and winter seasons. The catch is that these forecasts hinge on either resolution of the Strait of Hormuz disruption or markets adapting to prolonged supply constraints without further deterioration. If you’re planning summer travel, the current consensus suggests waiting a few weeks will yield noticeably lower prices than May levels, though prices are unlikely to return to the $2.97 annual average during the peak summer driving season.
Conclusion
Gas prices are unlikely to reach $5 per gallon in June 2026, despite current volatility that has pushed prices to $4.55—the highest level since 2022. Mainstream energy forecasts from the EIA, GasBuddy, Moody’s Analytics, and government officials project June prices in the $3.40 to $3.80 range, with summer averages around $3.70 per gallon. While some analysts have warned of potential $5 or $6 spikes during summer months, the consensus outlook is for prices to moderate from May’s peak as seasonal demand patterns stabilize and geopolitical markets adjust to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. The risks to these forecasts are real—geopolitical shocks, refinery disruptions, or extended supply constraints could push prices higher—but based on available data and expert analysis, June offers reasonable expectations for price relief compared to May.
Consumers should use these forecasts as a planning guide while maintaining flexibility for unexpected price movements. The $0.75 to $1.15 per gallon decrease from May to June that most forecasts suggest would provide meaningful savings for regular drivers, especially those with longer commutes. However, given the uncertainty in global oil markets and the possibility of unforeseen disruptions, it’s prudent to continue monitoring weekly price reports and industry news, adjust driving behavior if prices spike unexpectedly, and consider deferring non-essential travel if prices begin climbing again. The bottom line: current prices are painful, but relief is likely coming within weeks rather than months, assuming no major new supply shocks alter the current trajectory.