If you’re planning a summer road trip in 2026, gas prices are expected to drop significantly from their current highs, but experts disagree on how far they’ll fall. As of May 7, 2026, the national average gasoline price stands at $4.55 per gallon—a stunning $1.40 more expensive than May 2025. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted that gas could fall to $3.00 per gallon between June 20 and September 20, 2026, while Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi expects prices to settle around $3.50 per gallon by the end of the year. These predictions assume that current Middle East supply disruptions ease and global oil inventories stabilize.
The reality is more nuanced. While some experts are optimistic about summer relief, the forecasts vary depending on geopolitical factors, global oil supplies, and driving demand. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that gasoline prices will average more than $3.70 per gallon for all of 2026—roughly 6 percent lower than 2025 but still substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels. For consumers, understanding these competing predictions matters because it affects vacation budgeting, commuting costs, and household expenses at a time when inflation remains a political flashpoint.
Table of Contents
- What Are Expert Predictions for Summer 2026 Gas Prices?
- How Are Middle East Supply Disruptions Keeping Prices Elevated?
- Why Are Gas Prices So Different Across America Right Now?
- How Does Summer Driving Season Impact Gasoline Prices?
- What Could Prevent Prices From Falling as Experts Predict?
- How Should Consumers Plan Summer Travel Costs?
- What Does the Energy Market Outlook Tell Us Beyond Summer?
- Conclusion
What Are Expert Predictions for Summer 2026 Gas Prices?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s $3.00-per-gallon forecast represents the most optimistic outlook among major officials, predicting a drop of $1.55 from current levels over a 13-week window. This prediction was made in the context of the Trump administration’s focus on domestic energy production and supply-side policies, though it depends heavily on factors outside administration control—namely, global oil markets and geopolitical stability. Moody’s Analytics, which provides research to institutional investors and policymakers, offers a more conservative estimate of $3.50 per gallon by year-end, suggesting a more gradual decline through the summer months.
The Energy Information Administration, the independent energy statistics agency within the Department of Energy, projects that Brent crude oil will peak at $115 per barrel during the second quarter of 2026 (April through June), then decline to $99.80 per barrel during the third quarter when summer driving season is in full swing. This oil price trajectory directly influences gas prices at the pump. For every dollar increase in crude oil per barrel, gasoline prices typically rise about 2.4 cents per gallon. If the EIA’s oil projections hold, consumers should see meaningful relief at the pump, though the timing and magnitude depend on refinery capacity, seasonal demand patterns, and global supply flows.
How Are Middle East Supply Disruptions Keeping Prices Elevated?
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels per day of global oil and refined fuels pass, has had traffic suspended since early March 2026. This blockade represents one of the single largest threats to stable oil prices worldwide, as it cuts off roughly one-quarter of globally traded oil. The EIA estimates that current Middle East supply disruptions total between 7.5 and 9.1 million barrels per day, reducing global supply and pushing prices higher across all energy markets. Without resolution of these geopolitical tensions, even strong summer demand reduction may not drive prices down as far as optimistic forecasts suggest. A critical limitation of current predictions is their dependence on assumed resolution of these supply disruptions.
Bessent’s $3.00 forecast implicitly assumes that Strait of Hormuz traffic will resume and that Middle East tensions will ease sufficiently to restore normal supply flows. If these disruptions persist through summer, gas prices could remain $0.50 to $1.00 per gallon higher than predicted. Conversely, if disruptions resolve earlier than expected, prices could fall faster and lower than current forecasts. The global oil inventory sharp drawdown expected in Q2 2026 adds another layer of uncertainty—if inventories fall too quickly, refineries may struggle to meet summer driving demand, keeping prices elevated.
Why Are Gas Prices So Different Across America Right Now?
Regional price variations are substantial and persistent. As of May 9, 2026, California leads the nation at $6.16 per gallon, followed by Washington at $5.76 and Hawaii at $5.66. In contrast, Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Louisiana offer the lowest prices at $3.98, $4.00, and $4.02 per gallon respectively—a gap of more than $2 per gallon between the most and least expensive states. These differences reflect state-specific factors including refinery capacity, fuel blending mandates, state fuel taxes, and transportation costs from refineries to local markets. California’s persistently high prices stem from state-mandated fuel blending requirements designed to reduce air pollution, which increase production costs and limit the number of refineries that can supply the state.
Western states like Washington face geographic isolation from major refining hubs and higher transportation costs. The South enjoys lower prices partly due to proximity to the Gulf Coast refining cluster, where most U.S. crude oil is processed. During summer 2026, these regional disparities may narrow slightly if overall crude oil prices fall as predicted, but they are unlikely to disappear entirely. A consumer planning a summer road trip across regions should budget for significant price variation—filling up in Oklahoma before driving to California could save $600 or more in fuel costs for a cross-country journey.
How Does Summer Driving Season Impact Gasoline Prices?
Summer driving season, traditionally running from Memorial Day through Labor Day, increases gasoline demand by approximately 3 to 5 percent compared to other seasons. This seasonal surge normally pushes prices up by 15 to 40 cents per gallon, counteracting any benefits from declining crude oil prices. However, summer 2026 presents an unusual dynamic: crude oil prices are expected to decline from Q2 peaks to Q3 lows, while demand increases. The net effect depends on the magnitude of both movements, creating uncertainty in final summer prices.
If crude oil falls to the EIA’s predicted $99.80 per barrel in Q3 while summer demand increases moderately, gas prices could average near the $3.50 predicted by Moody’s Analytics. However, there’s an important tradeoff: if demand exceeds refineries’ capacity to process crude oil into gasoline, prices could remain higher for longer. Refinery utilization in the United States averages about 92 percent during normal periods but can strain if global supply disruptions limit available crude oil. The 2024-2025 period saw several refinery maintenance outages that supported higher prices despite lower crude costs—a reminder that gasoline prices depend on more than just crude oil availability.
What Could Prevent Prices From Falling as Experts Predict?
Several risk factors could undermine the optimistic forecasts. First, if Middle East tensions escalate rather than ease, and the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted through summer, global oil supplies could tighten further, pushing prices up rather than down. Second, a hurricane season affecting the Gulf Coast could disrupt refining and shipping, reducing gasoline supply precisely when summer demand is highest. Third, if the global economy remains stronger than expected, international demand for oil could exceed supply, preventing the price declines that forecasters assume.
Each of these scenarios has occurred in past summers and should be considered possible, not merely theoretical. Additionally, geopolitical risks are inherently unpredictable. The current Strait of Hormuz disruption emerged from conditions that were not universally predicted with precision, illustrating how quickly energy markets can shift. Consumers and businesses should treat the $3.00 to $3.70 summer price range as a reasonable estimate, not a guarantee. Budgeting for a scenario where prices average $4.00 to $4.25 per gallon during summer would provide a prudent safety margin, especially for households and businesses with tight margins.
How Should Consumers Plan Summer Travel Costs?
A practical example illustrates the financial impact of price variations. A typical family road trip covering 2,000 miles in a vehicle with a 25 miles-per-gallon average would require 80 gallons of fuel. At $3.00 per gallon (Bessent’s prediction), total fuel costs would be $240. At $3.70 per gallon (EIA average), costs would be $296.
At current May prices of $4.55 per gallon, the same trip would cost $364—a difference of $124 between the optimistic and current scenarios. For a two-vehicle family trip, that difference exceeds $250, enough to affect vacation budgeting significantly. Consumers can reduce uncertainty by monitoring fuel prices weekly through resources like AAA Fuel Prices and planning flexible travel dates around predicted price trends. Purchasing fuel in low-price states during road trips, maintaining vehicle maintenance to maximize fuel efficiency, and considering alternative transportation for shorter trips can all reduce exposure to price volatility. Businesses relying on transportation—delivery services, rideshare, rental companies—should model scenarios across the predicted price range to understand margin impacts.
What Does the Energy Market Outlook Tell Us Beyond Summer?
The EIA’s full-year 2026 projection of $96.00 average crude oil per barrel and more than $3.70 average gasoline prices suggests that even if summer brings relief, prices will remain elevated compared to 2020-2021 lows. This reflects structural changes in global energy markets—OPEC+ production management, geopolitical fragmentation, and ongoing Middle East tensions appear to be creating a “new normal” for oil prices. The shift from $50 to $100+ per barrel represents a significant change in energy costs that will persist beyond summer 2026. Longer-term, U.S.
energy policy—including decisions about crude oil export limits, refinery investments, and renewable energy adoption—will shape whether summer 2026 marks a temporary relief or the beginning of a sustained decline. The Trump administration’s emphasis on domestic energy production could accelerate U.S. oil and natural gas output, potentially supporting lower prices in 2027 and beyond. However, these changes require multi-year infrastructure investments and regulatory approvals, meaning that summer 2026 relief will likely depend far more on global factors than on new domestic production.
Conclusion
Gas prices during summer 2026 are expected to fall from the current national average of $4.55 per gallon, with expert forecasts ranging from Treasury Secretary Bessent’s optimistic $3.00 prediction to the EIA’s more conservative $3.70 average. These predictions assume that Middle East supply disruptions ease and that global oil inventories stabilize at sustainable levels. However, these assumptions carry real risk—geopolitical surprises, refinery disruptions, or stronger-than-expected demand could keep prices higher than forecasted.
For consumers and businesses planning summer travel and operations, the prudent approach is to budget conservatively within the $3.50 to $4.00 per gallon range while monitoring weekly price trends and remaining flexible about travel timing. The regional variations—with California at $6.16 and Oklahoma at $3.98—will likely persist and should factor into long-distance travel planning. As summer approaches, watching crude oil price movements, Middle East developments, and EIA inventory reports will provide early signals about whether expert predictions are tracking toward reality or require revision.