Diesel cost an average of $6.28 a gallon on Tuesday, October 13, according to AAA figures reported by CNBC, four days after President Trump promised that Russian cargoes would bring the price down. The explanation for why diesel prices are so high has little to do with Russian fuel being kept out: U.S. and international energy agencies trace this year’s spike to the war with Iran that began on February 28, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a collapse in diesel shipments from the Gulf and from Russia’s damaged refineries.
Where it stands: The government’s latest weekly survey, released on October 6, put on-highway diesel at $6.199 for the week of October 5. That was 18 cents lower than the week before but $2.488 higher than a year earlier, FleetOwner reported from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. By midday on October 13, contracts for future delivery of U.S. diesel had climbed 5% to a multi-week high, according to NBC News.
Behind the pump price sit four pressures that compound one another: a war that choked the main export route out of the Persian Gulf, attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, Russia’s own fuel crisis, and stockpiles that never recovered. Each is documented below with the agency or outlet that reported it.
Why diesel prices are so high: the causes at a glance
| Pressure | What the record shows | Reported by |
|---|---|---|
| Iran war, Hormuz | Prices jumped after Feb. 28 military action and the “de facto closure” of the strait | EIA |
| Saudi pipeline attacks | Brent hit $131 a barrel on Sept. 15 | EIA |
| Lost Gulf and Russian exports | Down 1.6 mb/d in August versus February | IEA |
| Record refining margins | U.S. diesel/gasoil above $200 a barrel in early September | IEA |
| Thin East Coast stocks | 32% below the five-year norm in September | EIA |
The Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz
The first shock came at the end of February. In an April review, the EIA said fuel prices rose sharply “following military action in the Middle East on February 28 and the subsequent de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.” Al Jazeera, describing the same route, reported that 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas had passed through the strait in peacetime.
Diesel took a harder hit than gasoline from the start. The EIA wrote that distillate prices “have increased significantly more” than gasoline because the loss of Middle East exports hit diesel and jet fuel “far more than” gasoline. By March 30, the agency said, diesel had reached $5.40 a gallon, the highest in real terms in over two years. NBC News puts the rise since February 28 at 70% for diesel and more than 45% for unleaded gas.
For the administration’s handling of the strait, see our earlier report on Trump’s Hormuz access restrictions and the questions they raise.
September: a pipeline attack sends crude higher
The second leg up came in late summer. According to the EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook, Brent crude averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 more than in August, after attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which the agency called a crucial bypass around Hormuz, temporarily halted its flows. The daily Brent price reached as high as $131 on September 15 “as buyers scrambled to secure near-term supplies due to the loss of Saudi exports,” the agency wrote.
The EIA also described a feedback loop. Diesel is so scarce, it said, that the “extreme tightness in diesel markets” pushes refiners to buy more crude simply to make enough diesel, which in turn lifts crude prices. In the same outlook, the agency put September’s average retail diesel price at $6.29.
Gulf and Russian diesel exports collapsed
Before the war, two regions supplied a huge slice of the world’s traded diesel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in September that Gulf and Russian diesel and gasoil exports had together made up almost 45% of global seaborne trade in February. By August, their combined net exports were 1.6 mb/d lower.
The Gulf’s share fell to “just over a quarter of pre-war levels” in August, the IEA said, because Hormuz flows “remained severely constrained.” Russia’s losses came from a different direction. The IEA cited “a near-halt to product exports following intensified Ukrainian attacks” on Russian refineries, and NBC quoted the agency’s September estimate of a drop of nearly 30% in Russia’s diesel output.
Moscow responded by keeping fuel at home: in July the Kremlin barred diesel sales abroad, a ban since stretched to the end of October, NBC reported. Michelle Wiese Bockmann of the shipping analytics firm Windward, citing Vortexa data, told Al Jazeera that Russian “diesel and gas exports” averaged 190,000 barrels per day from July through September, down from 850,000 in the January quarter.
Record margins and stockpiles that never refilled
With supply short, the gap between crude and finished diesel widened. Margins for refiners around the Atlantic hit records in August, the IEA said, “led by sharply higher diesel cracks.” The agency added that U.S. diesel/gasoil topped $200 a barrel in the first days of September, 94% higher than before the war.
Inventories tell the same story. The EIA reported that East Coast distillate stocks were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September, and it expects them to stay between 20% and 30% below average through the winter. Goldman Sachs, quoted by CNBC on October 13, put U.S. diesel stocks 14% under year-ago levels.
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The EIA adds a warning for anyone watching wholesale markets for relief: “Decreases in wholesale crack spreads will not immediately translate into lower retail prices.”
The weekly price record, in the EIA’s own numbers
The EIA’s weekly survey of on-highway diesel, which includes all taxes, shows how high prices remained into October. Figures are dollars per gallon, as the agency prints them.
| EIA survey week | U.S. diesel | U.S. regular gasoline |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 21 | 6.529 | 4.478 |
| Sept. 28 | 6.382 | 4.465 |
| Oct. 5 | 6.199 | 4.354 |
AAA’s daily averages run slightly differently. AAA lists its all-time diesel record as $6.5276, set on Sept. 22, and its national diesel average for October 13 as $6.2787.
Where Trump’s Russian diesel fits
Trump presented the Russian supply as the fix. According to Ship & Bunker, Trump said Moscow agreed to supply 300,000 tonnes at once, with more to follow in November and beyond, and he wrote that diesel prices “will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” Those tonnages are Trump’s claims; no published document confirms them. What Treasury actually authorized is laid out in our guide to the Russian diesel license.
Analysts doubt that the supply addresses the causes above. According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs put the effect of the October and November cargoes at $1 to $2 off a barrel of wholesale diesel. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates told the network that America already sells more diesel abroad than it buys, so it “does not need Russian supply.” On the day of the announcement futures slid 4%, yet they still showed a gain of more than 110% for 2026, NBC said; by October 12 the dip was gone. Analyst Tom Kloza said the next day’s rise showed a market “clearly not believing that Russian oil is on the way.” Our analysis of whether Russian diesel can lower U.S. fuel prices works through the volumes, and the politics of the timing are covered in our report on diesel prices and the 2026 midterms.
The EIA’s October forecast expects retail diesel to stay above $6 a gallon this month and to average about $4.50 next year. The agency noted that its forecast does not account for any extra supply following the G7’s announcement on October 2.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are diesel prices so high right now?
U.S. and international energy agencies point to the war with Iran that began February 28 and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline in September, a collapse in diesel exports from the Gulf and Russia, record refining margins and low inventories, especially on the East Coast.
What is the average price of diesel this week?
The EIA’s survey for the week of October 5 put U.S. on-highway diesel at $6.199 a gallon, including taxes. AAA’s daily average was $6.2787 on October 13. The EIA publishes its next weekly figure on October 14.
Why has diesel gone up more than gasoline in 2026?
The EIA says the loss of Middle East exports hit diesel and jet fuel far harder than gasoline. NBC News reports diesel is up 70% since February 28, against more than 45% for unleaded gas.
Will Russian diesel bring prices down?
Analysts quoted by CNBC and NBC doubt it will make much difference. Goldman Sachs estimated the first shipments would trim wholesale diesel by roughly $1 to $2 a barrel, while diesel futures were higher on October 13 than before the announcement. The tonnages come only from Trump’s own statements.
When will diesel prices come down?
The EIA forecasts retail diesel above $6 a gallon in October, then a gradual decline, with an average of about $4.50 a gallon in 2027. It expects inventories to stay below normal through 2027, keeping diesel margins elevated.
Sources
- Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update — U.S. Energy Information Administration, Diesel Fuel Release Date: October 6, 2026
- Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration, Release Date: October 6, 2026
- Short-Term Energy Outlook: Petroleum Products — U.S. Energy Information Administration, October 2026 STEO (released October 6, 2026)
- Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Oil Markets — U.S. Energy Information Administration, October 2026 STEO
- Crude oil and petroleum product prices increased sharply in the first quarter of 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration (Today in Energy), April 7, 2026
- Oil Market Report – September 2026 — International Energy Agency, September 2026
- Trump says Putin will release diesel fuel into global market — NBC News, October 9, 2026
- Energy prices rise after Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’ fails — NBC News, October 12, 2026
- Diesel futures signal higher prices to come, despite Trump moves — NBC News, October 13, 2026
- Trump’s diesel deal with Russia equals less than two weeks of U.S. demand — CNBC, October 13, 2026
- Oil little changed as traders assess Russian supply prospects — CNBC, October 13, 2026
- Diesel prices fall as experts weigh impact of Trump’s fuel order for trucking — FleetOwner, October 7, 2026
- Why is US turning to Russia for diesel despite sanctions? — Al Jazeera, October 10, 2026
- AAA Fuel Prices — AAA, Price as of 10/13/26
- US Lifts Sanctions on Russian Diesel for Six Months After Trump-Putin Call — Ship & Bunker, October 9, 2026
This article is news reporting and analysis based on the public sources listed above, as they stood on the dates shown. Where officials, lawmakers or analysts disagree, including on whether an action is lawful, their positions are attributed to them; Donald Trump Class Action is not a court and nothing here is legal advice. Facts in a developing story can change.