Russian LNG Revenue and the War Budget: What the Official Figures Show

Russian LNG revenue is the money behind the story the Financial Times and New York Times broke on October 23, when they reported former Polar LNG chief Joel Riddle’s claim that Novatek, the Russian company behind the Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 plants, was financing an Alaska export project. The official figures show how much oil and gas money Russia’s budget takes in, but none of the public sources reviewed for this article separates out what LNG alone contributes.

Where it stands: In mid-October 2026, Reuters calculated that oil and gas taxes “account for about a fifth of total government income” in Russia, and estimated that January-October revenue from them would reach 6.45 trillion roubles, down 14% from a year earlier. Reuters gave no separate line for liquefied natural gas.

The Alaska allegations remain contested. Polar LNG has dismissed Riddle as a “disgruntled employee” and insists it operates in “full compliance with applicable US laws.” Novatek rejects the idea that sanctions relief was a condition of its participation. Tech Wave, the Abu Dhabi company above Polar LNG, states that Novatek has no ownership interest. As Business Standard noted, “No US authority has publicly established that the alleged financing constituted a sanctions violation.” Our main report covers the allegations; the focus here is the money.

What oil and gas bring Russia’s budget

Moscow’s own budget sets the scale. According to Reuters, Russia’s 2026 budget assumes 8.918 trillion roubles of oil and gas revenue out of 40.283 trillion roubles in total. Reuters reports the category as a single line of oil and gas taxes. It said the jump it expected in October over September came mostly from quarterly payments of a profit-based tax on oil production.

The International Energy Agency tracks the export side for oil. In its January 2026 Oil Market Report, the IEA assessed Russia’s monthly crude and product export revenues at “around $11 billion, or roughly half pre-invasion levels,” citing wider discounts on Russian barrels. The IEA’s monthly figure is for oil and does not include LNG.

Washington has framed the stakes in those terms. When Treasury sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil in October 2025, it said the action would “degrade the Kremlin’s ability to raise revenue for its war machine.” Our earlier explainer on how Russian fuel exports fund the war covers the oil and diesel side; the rest of this article stays with gas.

Russian LNG revenue: the pieces that are public

No single official figure for Russian LNG revenue turned up in the sources reviewed. What exists are partial measures from buyers, analysts and the company.

The European Commission says the EU’s reliance on Russian gas fell from 45% of imports at the start of the war to 12% in 2025, and that the roughly 35 billion cubic meters still arriving each year cost the bloc about €10 billion annually. The Commission’s figure is for Russian gas in general and does not split out LNG.

One recent LNG-only estimate comes from a campaign group. gCaptain reported on October 9 that the German environmental group Urgewald, analyzing Kpler shipping data, estimated that the EU paid about €7.88 billion for 12.18 million metric tons of LNG from Novatek’s Yamal plant in the first nine months of 2026. That is Urgewald’s estimate, not an official tally.

Novatek’s own results are the third piece. According to High North News, writing in February 2026, Novatek earned a net profit of $2.37 billion in 2025, down from about $5 billion annually over the four years before that. The outlet said the drop reflected costs, production setbacks and narrower market access. Profit is not the same as tax paid to the state, and the outlet did not report Novatek’s tax bill.

How much LNG Russia ships, and from where

Volumes are better documented than money. Preliminary LSEG data reported by Reuters put Russia’s 2025 LNG exports at 31.3 million tonnes, down 2.5 percent. Novatek’s Yamal LNG shipped 18.3 million tonnes of that, and the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 shipped 1.2 million tonnes. Sakhalin-2, which Gazprom controls and which mainly serves Asia, shipped 10.3 million tonnes. Exports to Europe fell 16 percent to 13.8 million tonnes.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration measured a steeper decline. It reported that Russian LNG exports fell 8% in 2025, the biggest volume drop of any exporter, which it tied to EU sanctions. The EIA used a different data set and unit, and the two sources do not explain the gap.

Europe’s share has shrunk but not vanished. A Reuters factbox citing Eurostat said Russia supplied 14 percent of EU LNG imports in the second quarter of 2025, down from 22 percent in early 2021, and that Yamal LNG is the Russian plant serving Europe. gCaptain, citing Urgewald, reported that Europe took 85% of Yamal’s recorded deliveries by volume in the first nine months of 2026. How those cargoes move is the subject of our report on Russia’s Arctic LNG shipping.

Arctic LNG 2: capacity that sanctions stranded

High North News has described Arctic LNG 2 as “intended to be the cornerstone of Russia’s future LNG growth.” The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies describes it as a 19.8 mtpa project, following the 17.4 mt Yamal plant, with its first 6.6 mtpa train finished in December 2023. Business Standard notes that the Biden administration sanctioned the company operating Arctic LNG 2 in November 2023; the legal details are in our guide to Novatek sanctions.

Since then, High North News has reported, the project is only about half built, China is its sole confirmed buyer, and industry sources say Novatek has had to offer Chinese buyers discounts reportedly between 30% and 40%. No outlet or agency reviewed for this article published an estimate of what Arctic LNG 2 would earn Russia at full output, so this article does not offer one.

Moscow has acknowledged the delay. Reuters reported that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia had pushed back by “several years” its goal of producing 100 million tonnes of LNG a year, citing sanctions.

Where Europe’s ban leaves the money

The EU is closing its market to Russian LNG in stages. According to the Commission, the 19th sanctions package bans Russian LNG imports from 1 January 2027 for long-term contracts and within six months of entry into force for short-term ones. gCaptain reported that the short-term restrictions took effect on April 25, and Urgewald said September shipments showed no noticeable effect from them so far.

The Polar LNG reporting lands as that market narrows. U.S. LNG’s position as the main rival supplier is covered in our companion piece on U.S. LNG exports and Russia. On the revenue question itself, the record as of October 26 is limited to the figures above: an oil-and-gas tax take Reuters puts at about a fifth of federal income, and an EU gas bill the Commission puts at about €10 billion a year.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much money does Russia make from LNG?

No official figure isolating Russian LNG revenue was found in the sources reviewed. Partial measures include the European Commission’s estimate that the EU spends about 10 billion euros a year on Russian gas of all kinds and an Urgewald estimate, reported by gCaptain, of EU spending on Yamal LNG in early 2026.

What share of Russia’s budget comes from oil and gas?

Reuters calculated in October 2026 that oil and gas taxes account for about a fifth of Russian federal government income. Reuters did not break out LNG separately.

How much LNG did Russia export in 2025?

Preliminary LSEG data reported by Reuters put Russian LNG exports at 31.3 million tonnes in 2025, with Novatek’s Yamal LNG shipping 18.3 million tonnes of it. The EIA, using different data, reported a larger percentage decline than LSEG did.

Does Europe still buy Russian LNG?

Yes, under remaining contracts. The EU banned Russian LNG under short-term contracts from April 2026, and its ban on long-term contracts is due to take effect on January 1, 2027, according to the European Commission and gCaptain.

Sources

• Oil Market Report – January 2026 — International Energy Agency, January 21, 2026
• Russia’s oil and gas revenue seen up 10% y/y in October to $12 billion — Reuters (via Devdiscourse), October 15, 2026
• REPowerEU – phase out of Russian energy imports — European Commission, accessed October 26, 2026
• EU Imports Record 12.18 Million Tonnes of Russian Arctic LNG — gCaptain, October 9, 2026
• Russian LNG exports dip in 2025 as sanctions squeeze logistics — Reuters (via Baird Maritime), December 30, 2025
• FACTBOX | Where and how much Russia is exporting its LNG — Reuters (via Baird Maritime), September 19, 2025
• Global liquefied natural gas trade volumes reached record high in 2025 — U.S. Energy Information Administration, July 14, 2026
• Novatek Profit Slumps 60% as Arctic LNG Projects Struggle Under Western Sanctions — High North News, February 13, 2026
• Arctic LNG 2: The litmus test for sanctions — Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, October 2024
• Treasury Sanctions Major Russian Oil Companies, Calls on Moscow to Immediately Agree to Ceasefire — U.S. Department of the Treasury, October 22, 2025
• Former CEO: Russian Firm Backed Alaska Gas Venture — Newsmax (via Yahoo News), October 24, 2026
• Top executives quit $25 bn US gas project over alleged Russian control — Business Standard, October 25, 2026

This article is news reporting and analysis based on the public sources listed above, as they stood on the dates shown. Where officials, lawmakers or analysts disagree, including on whether an action is lawful, their positions are attributed to them; Donald Trump Class Action is not a court and nothing here is legal advice. Facts in a developing story can change.