Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists link Trump tariffs to retail inflation through direct measurement of store prices. They found tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to goods inflation by February 2026 across 67 non-oil consumer-goods categories. Pass-through means the share of an import tax that appears in the retail price. That measure helps shoppers see why everyday goods cost more.
Table of Contents
- What shoppers paid
- How the cost reaches the register
- Does a second Fed measure agree?
- What higher prices mean through 2027
What shoppers paid
Without tariffs, those consumer-goods prices would have fallen slightly, about 1%. Tariffs therefore accounted for all observed goods inflation in the sample.
The researchers also estimated a steady rule of thumb. Each 1-point rise in the average tariff rate raises retail consumer-goods prices about 0.25% after one year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported in its staff report on tariff pass-through. That implies about 26% of tariff increases ultimately reach shoppers.
How the cost reaches the register
About two-thirds of the retail increase was direct tariff pass-through. About one-third was indirect, as U.S. producers paid more for imported parts and passed those costs on. An earlier Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis found nearly 90% of 2025 tariffs entered U.S.
import prices almost immediately. It estimated Americans bore 94% of the tariff burden from January through August 2025 while the average tariff rate rose from 2.6% to 13%. Businesses confirm the handoff. A June 2025 New York Fed business survey found roughly three-quarters of manufacturers and service firms passed at least some tariff costs to customers. About one-third of manufacturers and 45% of service firms passed along all of it, often within a month.
📨 Get Free Accountability Coverage Alerts
Free · No spam · Unsubscribe anytime
Does a second Fed measure agree?
Federal Reserve Board economists reached a similar result with a different price index. They estimated tariffs through November 2025 raised core-goods PCE prices 3.1% by February 2026, according to the Board account in FEDS Notes on tariff effects in real time.
That increase explained essentially all excess core-goods inflation and added 0.8 point to overall core PCE. The Board researchers found full dollar-for-dollar pass-through after seven months.
What higher prices mean through 2027
The New York Fed results cover only non-oil goods and exclude services. Their effects also phase in over 6 to 12 months rather than appearing on one receipt.
That timing leaves the retail price level higher into 2027 even after the inflation rate stops accelerating, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York explained in its Liberty Street Economics analysis of tariff pass-through. Shoppers feel it as a lasting higher baseline, not a one-month spike. Readers can track exposure in three practical ways: Keep receipts by purchase date because later price moves may reflect earlier tariff changes.
- Save receipts for imported goods and replacement parts
- Compare unit prices before buying in bulk
- Allow extra time in budgets for delayed price moves on large orders
You Might Also Like
- How Trump Tariffs Push Retail Prices Higher on Everyday Goods
- What Is the Levi’s Trump Tariff Refund Settlement Worth?
- Does the Trump Beef Import Policy Lower Grocery Prices?