Yes, drivers could face another gas price spike before June, though the timing and severity remain uncertain. The national average price hit $4.55 per gallon on May 7, 2026, marking the second consecutive week of 25-cent increases. While futures markets suggest prices may have peaked near $4.56 per gallon, geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions mean additional spikes remain possible through June.
The current surge traces directly to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined fuels since early March 2026. This represents a massive supply shock. Gas prices have climbed 53 percent since February 26, jumping from $2.96 per gallon to current levels—a jolt that hits household budgets immediately at the pump.
Table of Contents
- Why Are Gas Prices Spiking Right Now?
- Massive Regional Price Variation Across America
- What Experts Expect by End of June
- What Drivers Should Consider Before June
- Risks and Uncertainties for June
- Government Response and Policy Context
- Looking Ahead to Summer and Beyond
- Conclusion
Why Are Gas Prices Spiking Right Now?
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the primary culprit behind current price levels. This vital waterway moves approximately 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply. When transit becomes restricted or halted, oil producers cannot move crude to refineries, and refineries cannot deliver finished gasoline to markets. The backup creates immediate pressure on prices, which investors and traders bid higher based on supply fears. Brent crude oil futures reflect this tension. On May 8, 2026, gasoline futures traded at $3.52 per gallon, up 1.88 percent from the previous day.
Analysts expect Brent crude to peak at around $115 per barrel during the second quarter of 2026 before easing somewhat as production shut-ins decrease. This peaking pattern suggests prices may hold elevated levels through May and early June before gradually moderating. However, this forecast assumes no additional geopolitical disruptions occur. The timing matters considerably. Spring and early summer historically see increased driving as Americans take vacations and commute longer distances. Higher prices arrive precisely when demand pressures would normally push prices upward anyway, creating a compounding effect on consumer pain at the pump.
Massive Regional Price Variation Across America
Gas prices vary dramatically by state, with California drivers paying nearly double what consumers in Oklahoma pay. As of May 6-7, 2026, California topped the nation at $6.16 per gallon, followed by Washington at $5.76 and Hawaii at $5.66. On the opposite end, Oklahoma averaged $3.98 per gallon, Mississippi $4.00, and Louisiana $4.02. This regional divide reflects refinery capacity, state tax rates, and local environmental regulations. California’s stricter fuel specifications and limited refinery count create supply bottlenecks that don’t affect other regions.
A California driver facing $6.16 per gallon is paying two dollars more per gallon than an Oklahoma resident—a difference that compounds dramatically across a full tank. For someone filling a 15-gallon tank weekly, this regional gap translates to a $30 weekly premium. The limitation of regional data is that national forecasts may not apply evenly. If another supply shock hits, California prices could spike to $7 per gallon while Oklahoma sees increases of only 30 to 50 cents. Consumers in expensive states face steeper risks and have fewer options to mitigate costs through purchasing decisions.
What Experts Expect by End of June
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, forecasts that gasoline prices will eventually settle around $3.50 per gallon by the end of 2026. This projection sits roughly 50 cents higher than pre-conflict levels, suggesting that while dramatic relief may arrive eventually, prices will remain elevated compared to early 2026. His expectation implies another 5 to 10 cent decline from current levels through June, but with continued volatility. The Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that Brent crude will peak during the second quarter of 2026 at $115 per barrel before declining as production shut-ins decrease and supply chains adjust. Assuming a typical conversion ratio, a peak around $115 Brent crude would correspond to retail prices in the $4.50 to $4.75 range for most of the country.
This forecast aligns roughly with current prices, suggesting the peak may already be here or arrives within the next few weeks. However, Nate Silver’s analysis of gas price volatility identifies additional risk factors that could alter this timeline. Further geopolitical disruptions, unexpected supply shocks, or accelerating demand could push prices higher again. This uncertainty means June could bring either the relief consumers hope for or another surprise spike. Drivers should monitor both crude oil futures and geopolitical news for signals of potential price movements.
What Drivers Should Consider Before June
Timing purchases matters when prices are volatile. Filling up on days when prices have stabilized or dipped slightly can save 10 to 20 cents per gallon compared to filling during price spikes. Many fuel price tracking apps and websites offer daily price data by region, allowing consumers to plan fill-ups accordingly. A driver who consistently fills up on the cheapest day of each week might save 4 to 6 dollars per tank over several months. Reducing driving represents the most direct way to weather elevated prices, though this option has clear tradeoffs.
Remote work opportunities, combining errands into single trips, and carpooling can meaningfully lower fuel consumption. However, many workers lack remote options, and relying on others for transportation creates logistical complications. For most households, modest behavioral adjustments—combining trips, avoiding unnecessary driving—offer the best practical balance between savings and lifestyle disruption. Fuel-efficient vehicles become more valuable during price spikes, but purchasing a new car represents a major financial decision unlikely to pay off purely through fuel savings within a reasonable timeframe. A vehicle that achieves 35 miles per gallon instead of 25 saves roughly 15 dollars per 1000 miles at current prices, but the vehicle purchase premium and depreciation usually exceed annual fuel savings unless driving exceptionally high mileage.
Risks and Uncertainties for June
The Strait of Hormuz situation could escalate or resolve unexpectedly, creating sudden price swings in either direction. Analysts cannot predict geopolitical outcomes with precision, making June forecasts inherently unreliable. A diplomatic breakthrough could push prices toward $3.50 per gallon quickly, while an escalation could drive them above $5 per gallon in some regions. Consumers planning major trips or relocations should account for price uncertainty rather than assuming current levels will persist. Supply disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz could amplify price spikes.
Hurricane season technically begins June 1 in the Atlantic, and any major storm affecting Gulf Coast refinery operations would tighten fuel supplies when they’re already constrained. Similarly, refinery maintenance or unexpected breakdowns could reduce production during a period when supplies are already tight. These secondary disruptions carry low probability but would have outsized impact if they occurred. The limitation of price forecasts is that they assume relatively normal conditions. Expert models often miss sudden shocks or cascading effects. Drivers should view June projections as educated guesses rather than reliable predictions, and maintain flexibility in driving plans and budgeting to accommodate potential price volatility.
Government Response and Policy Context
Federal policy responses to fuel price spikes have been limited and often ineffective historically. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve represents the primary tool available to administrations seeking to moderate prices, but reserve releases typically have modest impact on prices set by global oil markets. The current administration has not announced major price-intervention policies beyond standard market monitoring.
State governments in high-price regions occasionally implement fuel tax holidays or price investigations, but these measures face practical and political constraints. California has investigated refinery profit margins but struggled to find violations of law, as refiners often defend high prices through legitimate supply costs and operational constraints. Such investigations take months or years to complete, providing no relief to drivers facing immediate price spikes.
Looking Ahead to Summer and Beyond
As supply chains adjust and production restarts in regions affected by the Strait of Hormuz disruption, prices should moderate gradually through the summer. The current trajectory suggests June may bring modest relief from peak prices, potentially bringing the national average toward $4.30 to $4.40 per gallon by late June. However, this improvement assumes no new disruptions and represents a slow decline rather than rapid relief.
Longer-term, sustained price elevation will likely shape consumer behavior and vehicle purchasing decisions. More drivers may prioritize fuel economy, shift to remote work arrangements, or relocate closer to workplaces. The energy market will adjust to these behavioral changes gradually, but the cumulative effect over 12 to 24 months could reduce overall fuel demand and eventually ease price pressure. For the immediate weeks ahead, however, drivers should expect prices to remain elevated and volatile.
Conclusion
Drivers face a genuine possibility of another gas price spike before June, though the consensus among analysts suggests prices may have peaked near $4.56 per gallon in early May. The Strait of Hormuz closure remains the driving factor, constraining global oil supply and supporting elevated prices. Mark Zandi’s forecast of eventual moderation toward $3.50 per gallon by year-end provides some longer-term hope, but June itself likely brings continued uncertainty and potential volatility.
For the next few weeks, drivers should monitor crude oil futures, track regional price trends, and consider modest behavioral adjustments to reduce fuel consumption. While major relief probably won’t arrive until mid-summer at the earliest, understanding the drivers behind current prices and the timing of expert forecasts allows consumers to make more informed decisions about driving plans and fill-up timing. Price forecasts carry inherent uncertainty, and geopolitical developments could shift the trajectory significantly in either direction.