Gas prices could drop before summer arrives, but not to the levels that administration officials hoped for earlier this year. As of May 7, 2026, the national average for regular gasoline stands at $4.55 per gallon—a steep climb from where many expected prices to be by this time. The Trump administration’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled that prices could potentially fall to around $3 per gallon between June 20 and September 20, 2026, but this forecast comes with a major caveat: it depends heavily on a significant change in geopolitical conditions affecting global oil supplies.
The core question hinges on whether Middle East tensions—the primary driver of recent price spikes—will ease before peak summer driving season hits. Prices have risen 25 cents over just the past two weeks and are up 66.71 percent compared to a year ago, according to Trading Economics data. While some energy analysts still project moderate relief, the current crisis environment has rendered earlier optimistic forecasts obsolete.
Table of Contents
- What’s Happening to Gas Prices Right Now?
- Why Are Prices Spiking Now? Understanding the Oil Supply Crisis
- What Are Energy Officials Predicting for Summer 2026?
- What Factors Could Push Prices Down Before Summer Hits?
- What Could Prevent Summer Price Drops?
- Why Regional Prices Vary So Dramatically
- What Consumers and Policymakers Should Watch Between Now and Summer
- Conclusion
What’s Happening to Gas Prices Right Now?
The national average of $4.55 per gallon masks the dramatic regional variations currently gripping the country. California drivers are paying $6.16 per gallon—nearly $1.60 more than Oklahoma residents who are seeing prices around $3.98 per gallon. This isn’t typical seasonal variation. The 25-cent weekly increase over the past two weeks represents the most aggressive upward pressure consumers have faced in months, and it’s directly tied to supply concerns stemming from Middle East conflicts that have disrupted oil markets globally.
For context, these prices are significantly higher than what many Americans budgeted for this driving season. The week-over-week increases tell a story of accelerating pressure rather than stabilization. A family filling up a 14-gallon tank at the national average now pays $63.70 compared to just $54.60 two weeks ago—an additional $9 per fill-up. Over a month of driving, that compounds into a noticeable hit to household budgets.
Why Are Prices Spiking Now? Understanding the Oil Supply Crisis
The reason for this spike isn’t speculative trading or refinery capacity issues—it’s geopolitical tension in a region that supplies roughly one-third of the world’s oil. middle east conflicts have created genuine supply uncertainty, and the oil markets respond immediately to any signal that production could be disrupted. This is fundamentally different from seasonal price cycles or normal demand fluctuations. A critical limitation of current forecasts is that they were largely developed before the current escalation in Middle East tensions.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) had projected prices settling in the $3.20 to $3.60 range by summer, but that scenario assumed “global crude stabilization.” We’re decidedly not in a stabilized environment right now. Similarly, Moody’s Analytics forecast of approximately $3.50 per gallon by the end of 2026 operates on the assumption that current crisis conditions don’t persist, which is an unknown variable at this moment. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s more optimistic projection of $3 per gallon prices depends explicitly on resolution of the Iran conflict—something entirely beyond the control of domestic energy policy.
What Are Energy Officials Predicting for Summer 2026?
Administration officials and independent energy analysts have offered diverging forecasts, though they share a common thread: the hope that summer 2026 could bring relief from current levels. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly suggested that prices could return to the $3 per gallon range between June 20 and September 20, 2026. If that occurs, it would represent a dramatic reversal from today’s $4.55 national average.
However, Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi takes a more measured view, forecasting prices around $3.50 per gallon by the end of 2026 rather than a full return to $3. The EIA’s Short-Term Outlook suggests a middle ground: if global crude oil markets stabilize, prices could settle in the $3.20 to $3.60 range. The difference between these forecasts—a range spanning 60 cents per gallon—reflects genuine uncertainty about how quickly geopolitical tensions will resolve and how quickly oil markets will respond to any resolution.
What Factors Could Push Prices Down Before Summer Hits?
Several mechanical and geopolitical factors could help prices decline before or during summer driving season. First, if Middle East tensions ease—whether through diplomatic resolution or simple reduction in escalation rhetoric—oil markets typically respond within days with price declines. Historical precedent shows that markets often overshoot on the downside once a crisis is perceived as resolved. Second, the refining industry typically increases output during summer months to meet higher demand, which can help moderate prices.
Third, seasonal inventory builds by oil companies in May and June are often designed to smooth out price spikes and prepare for summer demand. A specific example: When the Middle East conflict concerns eased in early 2024, oil prices fell nearly 20 percent within three weeks as refineries ramped up processing and storage facilities were deployed. If a similar pattern emerges this year, the current $4.55 could drop substantially faster than current forecasts suggest. The limitation here is that such price declines depend entirely on external events beyond American control—decisions by OPEC+ producers, diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East, or simply a determination by markets that the crisis priced in worst-case scenarios that won’t materialize.
What Could Prevent Summer Price Drops?
Several significant risks could keep prices elevated through summer, frustrating consumer expectations and administration officials alike. A sustained or deepening Middle East conflict could actually send prices higher, particularly if major production facilities are damaged or if shipping through critical waterways becomes restricted. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 21 percent of global oil passes, remains a potential chokepoint where any disruption would immediately ripple through global markets. Another warning: summer demand itself will be a headwind to price declines.
Americans typically drive more during summer months, increasing gasoline consumption precisely when supply is already constrained by geopolitical concerns. Energy analysts often see summer prices remain sticky even when supply conditions improve, because demand growth eats into any relief. Additionally, hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico begins in June, and significant storms could damage refining infrastructure—a scenario that has repeatedly spiked prices during previous summer seasons. The current forecast environment assumes no major hurricanes, no escalation in Middle East tensions, and a gradual shift toward stability. Miss any one of those assumptions, and prices could remain well above the $3.50 to $3.60 optimistic range.
Why Regional Prices Vary So Dramatically
The $2.18 per gallon difference between California’s $6.16 and Oklahoma’s $3.98 reflects specific regional supply and regulatory dynamics. California’s fuel blend requirements—designed to reduce smog-forming emissions—create a smaller, geographically isolated fuel market where any supply disruption has outsized price impact. California also faces higher transportation costs, state-specific taxes, and refining capacity constraints.
Oklahoma, by contrast, sits near major refining hubs and benefits from lower state fuel taxes and more flexible fuel specification standards. A limitation of national averages is that they obscure this reality: a family in California pays 55 percent more per gallon than an Oklahoma family, yet both are affected by the same global oil market forces. For consumers in high-price regions, even optimistic forecasts of $3.50 per gallon would still represent prices far above historical norms. If summer forecasts hold, Californians might be paying $4.50 to $5 per gallon while Oklahoma sees $2.80 to $3.20—a disparity that reflects structural differences in regional markets, not just temporary supply shocks.
What Consumers and Policymakers Should Watch Between Now and Summer
The next five to six weeks are critical for determining whether summer prices will deliver relief or disappointment. Any positive headlines regarding Middle East diplomacy should be watched closely, as they typically precede downward price movement. Conversely, any escalation in regional conflicts will almost certainly spike prices again. Additionally, watch the weekly Department of Energy reports on crude oil inventory levels.
If inventories begin rising—indicating that refineries can produce more gasoline than the market is consuming—that’s a positive signal for eventual price relief. For policymakers, the current environment underscores the limits of domestic policy in controlling gasoline prices. Supply-side actions like expedited permitting for domestic drilling or refinery expansion operate on timescales of years, not months. Any administration hoping to deliver lower prices before summer faces a reality: the price depends far more on what happens in the Middle East and in OPEC+ meeting rooms than in Washington. Consumer expectations should be calibrated accordingly.
Conclusion
Prices could drop before summer, potentially reaching the $3 to $3.50 range that administration officials have suggested, but only if global geopolitical conditions stabilize meaningfully in the next month or two. As of May 7, 2026, the national average of $4.55 per gallon and the upward trend of recent weeks suggest that relief is not imminent. The forecasts that do project summer price relief are not predictions—they are conditional scenarios that require specific geopolitical outcomes.
For consumers facing $60-plus fill-ups, the practical reality is clear: budget for prices remaining elevated through June and early summer. Watch for any news about diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East or OPEC+ supply decisions, as these will be your leading indicators of whether the optimistic forecasts will materialize. Regional variations will persist, and some Americans in high-cost states like California will continue paying well above national averages regardless of what summer brings.