Social Security enters the 2026 midterms as a program under more strain than a year ago, even as beneficiaries got a modest raise. The 2026 Trustees Report moved up the retirement fund's depletion date and widened the long-term funding gap, while Trump's signature tax law fell short of his campaign pledge to end taxes on benefits. Beneficiaries did see a real increase: the Social Security Administration's 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment raised average retirement benefits by about $56 a month starting in January 2026, reaching roughly 71 million people, with the SSA's announcement noting that SSI increases began a few days earlier, on December 31, 2025. That increase lands alongside trust fund warnings and approval numbers that will shape how both parties campaign on the issue through November.
Table of Contents
- Did Trump eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits?
- How did the 2026 Trustees Report change the program's outlook?
- Did Trump's tax law contribute to the funding gap?
- How are voters responding to Trump's record on the issue?
- What this means for your vote
Did Trump eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits?
No. Despite repeated campaign promises to end federal taxation of Social Security, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that Trump signed in 2025 left those taxes in place. Instead, NBC News reported the law created a temporary $6,000 deduction for individual filers 65 and older ($12,000 for joint filers), running only through tax years 2025 to 2028. The deduction also has income limits that cut many seniors out entirely.
It phases out for individuals earning above $75,000 ($150,000 for joint filers) and disappears completely above $175,000 ($250,000 joint). The Tax Policy Center estimates fewer than half of older adults qualify for any benefit from it, and tax experts told NBC News that an SSA email describing the law as "tax relief" for seniors was misleading given how narrow the actual benefit is. For voters weighing Trump's record against his promises, the gap matters: a senior living on Social Security alone, with no other taxable income, generally wasn't paying federal tax on benefits already. The deduction mainly helps higher-income retirees with other income sources, not the lower-income beneficiaries who would gain the most from an actual repeal of benefit taxation.
How did the 2026 Trustees Report change the program's outlook?
The retirement portion of Social Security, known as OASI (Old-Age and Survivors Insurance), is now projected to run out in the fourth quarter of 2032 — one quarter sooner than last year's forecast. According to the Trustees Report summarized by the Congressional Research Service, once that fund depletes, incoming payroll tax revenue would cover only about 78% of scheduled retirement benefits, meaning an automatic cut unless Congress acts first. The combined picture is somewhat less urgent but still serious. When retirement and disability trust funds are counted together, depletion is projected for the third quarter of 2034 — unchanged from the 2025 report — at which point revenue would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits.
The Disability Insurance fund alone remains solvent through the full 75-year projection window, so the pressure point is concentrated in the retirement fund that most voters over 65 depend on. The program's long-term shortfall also grew. The 75-year actuarial deficit rose to 4.42% of taxable payroll in the 2026 report, up from 3.82% the year before. Trustees attributed part of that widening gap to lower assumed fertility and immigration, factors that reduce the future workforce paying into the system.
Did Trump's tax law contribute to the funding gap?
Partly, yes. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act's reduced taxation of benefits — through the new senior deduction — cuts Social Security revenue by an estimated $30 billion a year, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's analysis cited by NBC News.
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That revenue loss is one of the factors trustees pointed to in moving the OASI depletion date a quarter earlier than previously projected. This creates a tension for voters to weigh: the deduction offers some current-year tax relief to seniors who qualify, but it does so by reducing the same tax revenue that funds future benefit payments. A law marketed as helping seniors on Social Security is, by the government's own accounting, accelerating the point at which the program can't pay full benefits.
How are voters responding to Trump's record on the issue?
Public approval of Trump has declined over the course of 2026, though two polls diverge on the exact numbers. The Angus Reid Institute's survey, fielded August 6-11, 2026, found overall approval at 34%, down from 37% in December-January, with 58% disapproving. Respondents in that poll were more likely to name failures than accomplishments when asked about his record. Ballotpedia's end-of-August polling average put the number higher, at 41% approval against 56% disapproval.
The same report found congressional approval at just 16%, suggesting voters are skeptical of incumbents across both parties heading into the midterms, not just the president. Senior voters specifically show a different pattern. A January 2026 survey commissioned by Seniors Matter for America, a pro-Trump senior-advocacy coalition, found Trump at net +4 approval among seniors, according to the Washington Times. The same poll found 67% of all voters, and 71% of those over 65, supporting elimination of Social Security taxes — a reminder that the sponsor has a direct stake in framing this issue as a Republican strength, so the result is best read alongside the independent approval polling above rather than in place of it.
What this means for your vote
Voters weighing Social Security as a midterm issue have a few concrete facts to work from rather than campaign rhetoric: Anyone planning for retirement income in the next decade should treat the 2032 OASI depletion date as the relevant planning horizon, not the later 2034 combined-fund date — the 78% benefit coverage figure is what applies specifically to retirement benefits if Congress takes no action before then.
- The COLA increase is real and already in beneficiaries' checks as of January 2026, but it doesn't address the program's funding timeline.
- The promised full repeal of benefit taxation didn't happen; what exists is a temporary, income-limited deduction expiring after 2028.
- The retirement trust fund's depletion date moved closer, not farther away, during this administration's first full year of this tax law being in effect.
- Polling on Trump's overall approval varies by pollster (34% to 41%), but both show disapproval well above approval.
- Senior-specific polling showing stronger Trump approval comes from a sponsor advocating for his policies, which doesn't make the numbers false but does mean they shouldn't be read as neutral.
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