President Trump announced his deal for Russian diesel on Friday, Oct. 9, with less than a month to go before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. AP’s first report called it an attempt to deal with high fuel prices ahead of the vote, and since then the diesel prices midterms connection has shaped how both parties talk about it.
Where it stands: CNBC reported the national diesel average at $6.28 a gallon on Tuesday, Oct. 13, citing AAA, up 72% from a year earlier and above the $6.23 recorded on deal day. Gulf Oil adviser Tom Kloza wrote that the record “could be topped by the midterms.”
What follows is about the politics and the clock: who framed the deal as an election move, what voters have told pollsters about fuel costs, and what Republicans and Democrats are saying as the vote approaches. How the deal itself works is covered in our explainer.
Diesel prices midterms timing: who made the connection
We are not guessing at Trump’s motive. Several newsrooms drew the election link in their own reporting, and it is theirs to own:
- AP (carried by NPR) led with the deal as an effort to tackle high fuel costs before the midterms, and its headline said the purpose was to ease prices before the vote.
- CNBC wrote on Oct. 9 that the move came “with less than a month left in an affordability-focused midterm election,” and on Oct. 13 that Trump is under pressure on fuel because of its effect on inflation as November nears.
- Al Jazeera wrote that Trump “is particularly concerned about bringing down the price of diesel before the US midterm elections.”
- NBC News reported that gas and diesel are climbing fastest in places where Trump and his party can least afford to upset voters.
Trump’s own announcement framed the deal as being for working voters. “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority,” he wrote.
What voters are telling pollsters
The most recent national numbers we could source predate the deal. A Fox News poll taken Sept. 11-14, as reported by Newsweek, found majorities worried about prices and unhappy with the president on inflation.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
| Gas prices a major problem | 61 percent, up from 48 percent two years earlier (Fox News) |
| Trump approval on inflation | 24 percent approve, 74 percent disapprove (Fox News) |
| Better party on inflation and prices | Democrats, fifty-five percent; Republicans, 40 percent (Fox News) |
| Economy as most important issue | 84 percent of registered voters (Pew, via Al Jazeera) |
The Fox survey covered 1,211 registered voters and carries a margin of error of 3 percent. Fuel feeds straight into the inflation numbers voters see, too: CNBC, citing the BLS, said gasoline alone drove over a third of August’s rise in consumer prices.
Can Russian diesel reach drivers before Election Day?
The White House has not said. AP reported that it did not clarify whether the November shipments Trump described would arrive ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3. From Moscow, Alexander Novak, a deputy prime minister, said via state media that the first American-bound supplies might go out this month.
Even if cargoes move, the effect on pump prices is in doubt. By CNBC’s reckoning, everything Trump listed adds up to about 10 days of U.S. demand. Andy Lipow told CNBC the market sees the deal as mostly a verbal intervention to show consumers Trump is doing something. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan was blunter on X: “Truckers and farmers not going to see any relief anytime soon.” For the barrel-by-barrel numbers, see our market math on Russian diesel and pump prices.
What Republicans are saying
The party is split. Defenders frame the license as leverage and a duty to consumers:
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued the administration is acting within its legal authorities and its political mandate, CNN reported.
- Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., told CBS: “The president is balancing and has to make tough decisions.” In his telling, the license gives Trump extra leverage over Putin.
- On ABC’s This Week, Newsweek reported, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer spoke up for the agreement.
- Trump on Oct. 12: “I made the right choice for the American People—always America first.”
The Republican critics run from House members to senators to a former vice president. Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska wrote that “buying Russian fuel is the wrong answer,” even as he backed lower diesel costs for farmers and ranchers. Sen. Susan Collins said: “I was a co-sponsor of the Russian sanctions law, which the President recently signed, but is now not following.” Sen. Thom Tillis, retiring in January according to Reuters, said there is “a legitimate case for saying the president’s not following the law.” Former Vice President Mike Pence urged Trump to “rescind this deal immediately.” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania said on Oct. 10 he would bring a bipartisan bill to stop Russian oil purchases and force it to the floor. The Senate Republicans’ role is covered in depth in our report on GOP senators.
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What Democrats are saying
In the statements we reviewed, Democrats leaned on the law and on Ukraine more than on prices. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, whose name is on the 2022 import ban, says the deal directly violates it. Rep. Don Beyer, the top House Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee, called it “infuriating” and said of the Graham sanctions law: “Giving him expanded tariff powers in hopes he would use them to help Ukraine was a mistake.” Sen. Richard Blumenthal called the move “directly contrary to Congress’s intent in our bipartisan sanctions bill.”
Two Democrats, Jeanne Shaheen and Blumenthal, joined four Republicans on the Oct. 11 statement asking the administration to reverse course, by AP’s count; Reuters counted seven signers, adding Democrat Ron Wyden. Neither count changes the basic picture: opposition crossed party lines a few weeks before the vote.
The calendar between now and the vote
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| Oct. 9 | Trump announces the deal; Treasury eases diesel sanctions |
| October | First Russian supplies could start, per Novak |
| Oct. 18 | Graham Act implementation deadline, per Baker Botts |
| November | Second tranche due, per Trump’s post |
| Nov. 3 | Election Day |
Congress may not be in a position to act before then. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that lawmakers are not scheduled to resume voting for several weeks, and that the current term ends in January. What options lawmakers do have is laid out in our look at whether Congress can block the deal.
The first checkpoint comes sooner, under the Graham sanctions law. Baker Botts reads the statute as requiring the sanctions and tariffs to be put in place by October 18, 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Trump make the Russian diesel deal because of the midterms?
Trump has not tied it to the election in any statement we found. He called lower prices for farmers, ranchers and truckers his greatest priority. AP, CNBC, Al Jazeera and NBC News each linked the timing of the deal to the November midterm elections in their reporting.
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
Election Day is Nov. 3. Trump announced the Russian diesel deal on Oct. 9, which CNBC described as less than a month before an affordability-focused midterm.
Will diesel prices be lower by Election Day?
No one can say. The average rose from $6.23 on Oct. 9 to $6.28 on Oct. 13, and analyst Tom Kloza wrote that the record could be topped by the midterms.
What do polls say about gas prices and the midterms?
A Fox News poll taken Sept. 11-14 found 61 percent of registered voters call gas prices a major problem, while on inflation and prices a majority preferred Democrats, with 40 percent picking Republicans.
Which Republicans oppose the Russian diesel deal?
On the record against it: four GOP senators who signed the Oct. 11 statement (Collins of Maine, Tillis of North Carolina, Murkowski of Alaska, Curtis of Utah), House members Don Bacon and Brian Fitzpatrick, and former Vice President Mike Pence. Sen. John Barrasso and Rep. Tom Emmer defended it.
Sources
- Trump says U.S. to get diesel from Russia, relaxing pressure on Moscow to ease prices before midterms — NPR (The Associated Press), October 9, 2026
- Trump-Putin diesel deal contradicts Russia sanctions law, critics say — CNBC, October 9, 2026
- Trump’s diesel deal with Russia equals less than two weeks of U.S. demand — CNBC, October 13, 2026
- Diesel futures signal higher prices to come, despite Trump moves — NBC News, October 13, 2026
- Why is US turning to Russia for diesel despite sanctions? — Al Jazeera, October 10, 2026
- Gas Prices Top $4.40 as 61% Say They’re a Major Problem: Poll — Newsweek, September 2026 (poll conducted September 11-14, 2026)
- Republicans Move to Block Trump’s Putin Diesel Deal Amid Legality Questions — Newsweek, October 11, 2026
- Bipartisan group of senators calls on Trump to ‘reverse course’ on Russian diesel plan — PBS News (Associated Press), October 11, 2026
- US Republicans, Democrats want Trump to reverse course on Russia diesel — Reuters (via The Star), October 11, 2026
- Republicans Denounce Trump’s Diesel Deal With Russia’s Putin Amid Mounting Backlash — TIME, October 12, 2026
- Trump’s US-Russia diesel deal draws bipartisan criticism — CNN, October 11, 2026
- House Republicans Move To Block Trump’s Russia Diesel Deal — Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, October 10, 2026
- Doggett: Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal Violates the Law — Office of Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX), October 12, 2026
- President Trump Signs Graham Sanctions Act, Expanding Russia Sanctions and Tariff Authorities — Baker Botts L.L.P., September 2026
- Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2026 — in one chart — CNBC, September 11, 2026
This article is news reporting and analysis based on the public sources listed above, as they stood on the dates shown. Where officials, lawmakers or analysts disagree, including on whether an action is lawful, their positions are attributed to them; Donald Trump Class Action is not a court and nothing here is legal advice. Facts in a developing story can change.