When the Treasury Department eased sanctions on Russian diesel on Friday, Oct. 9, Ukraine, the European Union and senators from both U.S. parties made the same objection: the money ends up paying for the war. The size of that stake is measurable. Russian fuel export revenue from all fossil fuels averaged €604 million, or about $676 million, a day in August, according to the Centre for Research on Clean Air as cited by The National, an 8% drop from July.
Where it stands: Moscow’s oil income is rising again, The Moscow Times reported on Oct. 5. It said analysts at Tverdye Tsifry expect October oil and gas budget revenue to approach 1 trillion rubles ($11.8 billion), and that Russia’s Finance Ministry expects that revenue to beat its fiscal-rule baseline by almost 290 billion rubles ($3.42 billion). We could find no official IEA estimate of Russia’s September export earnings, so none is given here.
This article follows the money. How Kyiv reacted to the deal is covered in our report on Zelensky’s response; what the license means at U.S. pumps is weighed in our analysis of the price effect.
Russian fuel export revenue: the latest figures
No single official series tracks Russia’s fuel income in real time. The figures below come from a think tank, Russian government data as reported by The Moscow Times, a Warsaw research center and commodity analysts. Each measures something different, so they should be read side by side, not added together.
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Fossil fuel export revenue, August | $676 million a day, down 8% | CREA, via The National |
| Oil price used for Russian energy taxes | $92.10 a barrel in September, from $67.10 in August | The Moscow Times |
| October oil and gas budget revenue (estimate) | Near 1 trillion rubles ($11.8 billion) | Tverdye Tsifry, via The Moscow Times |
| Oil and gas share of 2026 budget revenue (plan) | 22%, against 42% in 2022 | OSW Centre for Eastern Studies |
| Russian diesel output | Down about 30% | IEA, via AP |
| Diesel and gas exports, third quarter | 190,000 barrels per day, against 850,000 in the first quarter | Windward, citing Vortexa, via Al Jazeera |
How oil money reaches the Kremlin’s budget
One main channel is tax. The Moscow Times explains that Russia’s mineral extraction tax is set from the prior month’s average oil price, so September’s jump to $92.10 a barrel feeds October’s tax receipts.
Part of that money flows straight back out. The same report notes the Tverdye Tsifry estimate already allows for substantial payments under Russia’s fuel subsidy mechanism, which pays producers to keep supplying the home market.
The planning assumption for 2026 put oil and gas at a smaller slice of the budget than earlier in the war. A December 2025 analysis by OSW, the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, said their share of total budget revenues was “projected to fall to 22%, roughly the same as in 2025 and down sharply from 42% in 2022.” That forecast was written before the Iran war sent crude sharply higher, so it is a plan, not a result.
Washington itself has described oil income as war money. When the Treasury sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil in October 2025, it said the measures would “degrade the Kremlin’s ability to raise revenue for its war machine and support its weakened economy.”
Why diesel matters to Moscow
Diesel is a product Russia has long had to spare. CNN, citing the data firm Kpler, ranked Russia second only to the United States among diesel exporters, with Turkey and Brazil as its biggest buyers. The IEA says Russia normally makes about twice the diesel its own economy needs, Al Jazeera reported, which leaves a large surplus to sell.
The European Union has barred Russian crude and refined products, CNBC noted, so Russian diesel has gone to buyers outside Europe. Kpler analysts told CNBC that Russian diesel returning to market would ease competition for American cargoes in places like Brazil and Turkey.
What Ukraine’s refinery strikes cut
Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign has hit that trade hard. CNN reported on July 9 that Russia had fully banned diesel exports after the strikes caused widespread shortages, with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying the goal was to “increase supplies to the domestic market.” One analyst told CNN he expected the ban to be brief because of the “cost of forgoing export revenue.”
It lasted. Al Jazeera reported that Russia extended the ban in late September to the end of October. By the IEA’s account, Russian diesel production fell by about 30%, and its September report described “a near-halt to product exports following intensified Ukrainian attacks.” The shipping analysts at Windward, citing Vortexa, put Russia’s diesel and gas exports at 190,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, a fraction of the 690,000 in the second. Russia even imported diesel and gasoline in the third quarter, for the first time, Windward’s Michelle Wiese Bockmann told Al Jazeera.
That squeeze is why several analysts doubt Russia can ship the volumes Trump announced. Goldman Sachs estimated Russian refinery outages are 3 million bpd higher than a year ago, which it said makes higher diesel output ‘challenging,’ per CNBC. Neil Atkinson, who formerly ran the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, told Al Jazeera it was hard to see Russia delivering “other than at the expense of its domestic market.”
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What the license lets Moscow sell
The Treasury license, General License 135, covers “the sale, delivery, offloading, or importation, including importation into the United States, of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin” through April 7, 2027, according to the Treasury document quoted by NBC. The Treasury framed it as a way to supply diesel ‘to the global market,’ not only to American buyers. Our explainer on the deal walks through the license terms.
There is one limit on where the money can land. According to The National, the license does not authorize any debit to accounts at U.S. banks held by Russia’s central bank, its National Wealth Fund or its Ministry of Finance.
Moscow moved quickly on its side. Russia’s deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak, said through Tass that his government was “immediately starting to lift restrictions on diesel exports ahead of schedule,” AP reported. Asked whether the United States made concessions or what Russia agreed to in return, Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov answered only that “the American side will provide certain additional clarifications on this matter.” We found no published clarification from Washington.
What critics say the relief is worth
No government or analyst has published an estimate of what the diesel license alone will earn Russia. The critics’ case rests on direction rather than a dollar figure. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, posted on Oct. 10 that “Suspending sanctions on Russian diesel provides Moscow with more revenues to wage war.” A bipartisan group of senators said a day later that the United States “should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians.”
The closest thing to a price tag comes from the spring, when the Treasury issued short waivers for Russian oil already loaded at sea. Senate Democrats led by Jeanne Shaheen and Richard Blumenthal said on April 10 that higher prices and that relief were “reportedly providing Russia an extra $150 million per day in budget revenues from oil sales.” A week later, Senate Banking Democrats said Russia “saw oil revenues nearly double in March.” Both are the senators’ claims, and both concern the spring oil waivers, not this diesel license. Our timeline of 2026 Russia sanctions waivers covers those earlier licenses.
The administration and its allies frame it differently. Energy Secretary Chris Wright defended the March waiver for India on CBS, saying “We’re not helping Russia by just accelerating the sale of their oil.” Sen. John Barrasso called the diesel deal “just another point of leverage for the president to use against Putin.” Neither offered a revenue estimate either. Before Oct. 9, Russia’s own diesel export ban had been set to run until the end of October.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much money does Russia make from fuel exports?
The Centre for Research on Clean Air estimated Russia earned about 604 million euros, or 676 million dollars, a day from fossil fuel exports in August, down 8% from July, according to The National. That figure covers all fossil fuels, not diesel alone.
What share of Russia’s budget comes from oil and gas?
Russia’s 2026 budget plan projected oil and gas at 22% of total revenue, against 42% in 2022, according to OSW. That projection was made in December 2025, before oil prices rose sharply this year.
Do Ukrainian drone strikes reduce Russian oil revenue?
They have cut Russia’s diesel trade. The IEA estimates Russian diesel output fell about 30% and described a near-halt to product exports, and Russia banned diesel exports in July to protect its home market.
How much will Russia earn from the U.S. diesel license?
No government or analyst has published an estimate. Critics including the EU and a bipartisan group of senators argue it hands Moscow extra income to fight with, and the Kremlin has left it to Washington to explain what, if anything, Russia gave in return.
Can Russia send diesel money to its central bank through U.S. accounts?
According to The National, the license does not authorize debits to U.S. bank accounts of Russia’s central bank, National Wealth Fund or Ministry of Finance. It does authorize the sale and delivery of Russian diesel through April 2027.
Sources
- Trump lifts US sanctions on Russian diesel amid price surge — The National, October 9, 2026
- Russia’s Currency Buying Spree Set to Pressure Ruble as Oil Revenues Rise — The Moscow Times, Oct. 5, 2026
- Russia’s 2026 budget: mounting financial challenges and economic stagnation — OSW Centre for Eastern Studies, 9.12.2025
- Oil Market Report – September 2026 — International Energy Agency, Published 11 September 2026
- Trump strikes deal with Putin to get diesel in sharp reversal of US policy weeks before midterms — The Associated Press (via Live 5 News), October 9, 2026
- Russia bans diesel exports after Ukrainian attacks, straining tense global market — CNN Business, Jul 9, 2026
- Why is US turning to Russia for diesel despite sanctions? — Al Jazeera, 10 Oct 2026
- Trump’s diesel deal with Russia equals less than two weeks of U.S. demand — CNBC, Oct 13, 2026
- Trump says Putin will release diesel fuel into global market — NBC News, Oct. 9, 2026
- Treasury Sanctions Major Russian Oil Companies, Calls on Moscow to Immediately Agree to Ceasefire — U.S. Department of the Treasury, October 22, 2025
- Comment by Aide to the President Yury Ushakov following Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump — Office of the President of Russia (kremlin.ru), October 9, 2026 23:55
- EU says lifting diesel sanctions gives Russia ‘revenues to wage war’ — AFP (via Arab News), Updated 10 October 2026
- Bipartisan group of senators calls on Trump to ‘reverse course’ on Russian diesel plan — PBS News (Associated Press), October 11, 2026
- Shaheen, Blumenthal, Colleagues Call on Trump Administration to End Putin’s Oil Profit Windfall Ahead of Tomorrow’s Sanctions Waiver Deadline — Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Democrats), April 10, 2026
- Warren, Shaheen, Schumer Statement on Trump Administration Extending Sanctions Relief for Russian Oil — Senate Banking Committee (Minority), April 17, 2026
- Congressional Democrats demand reversal of Russian oil sales into India as energy prices soar — Office of Rep. Sam Liccardo (reprint of CNBC), March 9, 2026
This article is news reporting and analysis based on the public sources listed above, as they stood on the dates shown. Where officials, lawmakers or analysts disagree, including on whether an action is lawful, their positions are attributed to them; Donald Trump Class Action is not a court and nothing here is legal advice. Facts in a developing story can change.